The mathematical review of the results of the 31st matchday
At this point, the predicted goal expectations are compared with the reality, as well as the expected determination with the arrived one.
Goal expectation
Home Away Total DeviationStuttgart Werder 2.15 1.23 3.38 4 1 1.85 -0.23
Kaiserslautern Nürnberg 0.84 1.07 1.91 0 2 -0.84 0.93
Schalke 04 Dortmund 1.16 1.45 2.61 1 2 -0.16 0.55
Wolfsburg Augsburg 1.74 0.99 2.73 1 2 -0.74 1.01
HSV Hannover 1.31 1.34 2.66 1 0 -0.31 -1.34
Leverkusen Hertha 2.06 0.99 3.05 3 3 0.94 2.01
FC Bayern Mainz 2.61 0.73 3.34 0 0 -2.61 -0.73
Gladbach FC Cologne 2.10 0.87 2.96 3 0 0.90 -0.87
Freiburg Hoffenheim 1.48 1.33 2.81 0 0 -1.48 -1.33
15.44 10.01 25.45 13 10 -2.44 -0.01
Expected Goal Total Expected Goal Average Scored Goal Average
25.45 2.83 2.56 ø expected goal difference 1.85 ø goal difference 2.09
The “over” has come for Stuttgart against Werder. Hardly any doubt about the quality of the bet. The not necessarily advised “under” at Kaiserslautern has also become one. With Bayern it is questionable whether, despite the expected 3.34 goals, an “over” would have been indicated at all, since the market naturally expects many goals. If there was still a bet, then it would certainly have been the “over” in Leverkusen – and this also came true.
Otherwise, the expected goal difference was far smaller than the one that came in. Of course, the outliers are responsible for this, in this case above all Bayern, who did not score at all – and thus 2.61 times too seldom. Hertha scored 2.01 goals too many, which are already the highest values. However, you can see from the expected value per game of 1.85 that there should actually only be a deviation of 0.925 per team. Well, the value has not been reached for a few weeks now, which in any case indicates a liveliness in the Bundesliga – and thus not necessarily against the quality of the numbers.
The determination expected/arrived at
The fixing expected Pairing 1 X 2
Stuttgart Werder 58.23% 20.51% 21.26% 42.64%
Kaiserslautern Nürnberg 28.02% 31.47% 40.50% 34.16%
Schalke 04 Dortmund 30.18% 26.08% 43.74% 35.04%
Wolfsburg Augsburg 54.99% 23.68% 21.34% 40.39%
HSV Hannover 36.26% 26.16% 37.58% 34.11%
Leverkusen Hertha 61.91% 20.65% 17.44% 45.63%
FC Bayern Mainz 77.62% 14.29% 8.09% 62.95%
Gladbach FC Cologne 65.68% 19.83% 14.49% 49.17%
Freiburg Hoffenheim 40.75% 25.22% 34.03% 34.55%
4.54 2.08 2.38 3.79
Average expected fixing: 42.07%Here, always as a reminder, are the values from the previous week. The main point is that the expected commitment is calculated here once again in a comprehensible way.
The determination arrived Pairing 1 X 2 Tendency
Stuttgart Werder 58.23% 20.51% 21.26% 1 58.23%
Kaiserslautern Nürnberg 28.02% 31.47% 40.50% 2 40.50%
Schalke 04 Dortmund 30.18% 26.08% 43.74% 2 43.74%
Wolfsburg Augsburg 54.99% 23.68% 21.34% 2 21.34%
HSV Hannover 36.26% 26.16% 37.58% 1 36.26%
Leverkusen Hertha 61.91% 20.65% 17.44% 0 20.65%
FC Bayern Mainz 77.62% 14.29% 8.09% 0 14.29%
Gladbach FC Cologne 65.68% 19.83% 14.49% 1 65.68%
Freiburg Hoffenheim 40.75% 25.22% 34.03% 0 25.22%
3 3 3 3.26
average determination achieved: 36.21%Of course, the expected determination could not be achieved, as Bayern did not win their match – and thus in a mathematical sense at least provided for “the big surprise”. But Augsburg’s win in Wolfsburg, Hertha’s draw in Leverkusen and the draw in Freiburg were also outsider events, so that these outweighed them overall.
