The mathematical review of the results of the 28th matchday
At this point, a comparison of the predicted goal expectations with the reality, as well as the comparison of the expected determination with the arrived.
| Torerwartung | ||||||||
| Heim | Auswärts | Summe | Abweichung | |||||
| Dortmund | Stuttgart | 2.47 | 0.74 | 3.21 | 4 | 4 | 1.53 | 3.26 |
| Nürnberg | FC Bayern | 0.75 | 1.89 | 2.64 | 0 | 1 | -0.75 | -0.89 |
| Kaiserslautern | HSV | 1.02 | 1.17 | 2.19 | 0 | 1 | -1.02 | -0.17 |
| Augsburg | FC Köln | 1.65 | 1.13 | 2.78 | 2 | 1 | 0.35 | -0.13 |
| Werder | Mainz | 1.85 | 1.20 | 3.06 | 0 | 3 | -1.85 | 1.80 |
| Leverkusen | Freiburg | 2.22 | 1.17 | 3.39 | 0 | 2 | -2.22 | 0.83 |
| Hertha | Wolfsburg | 1.49 | 1.38 | 2.87 | 1 | 4 | -0.49 | 2.62 |
| Hannover | Gladbach | 1.22 | 1.15 | 2.38 | 2 | 1 | 0.78 | -0.15 |
| Hoffenheim | Schalke 04 | 1.18 | 1.50 | 2.67 | 1 | 1 | -0.18 | -0.50 |
| 13.86 | 11.33 | 25.19 | 10 | 18 | -3.86 | 6.67 | ||
| Erwartete Torsumme | Erwarteter Toreschnitt | Erzielter Toreschnitt | ||||||
| 25.19 | 2.80 | 3.11 | ||||||
| ø erwartete Torabweichung | 1.86 | ø Torabweichung | 2.17 |
ø expected goal difference 1.86 ø goal difference 2.17
The match in Dortmund was expected to be rich in goals, as 3.21 goals were expected. They would probably have won any “over”, with the goal yield of 8 goals.
Nuremberg was recommended as “under” – and it was. Lautern were even more recommended as “under”, and this also came true. At Werder, if anything, the “over” was also recommended. Since the usual line is 2.5 goals, they would have won this one too.
In contrast, the many goals in Leverkusen were illusory. This “over” would have been lost. Likewise, the “under” in Hanover would certainly have been lost. The record would have been something like 4:2, which would of course have been an excellent result.
The away teams have been on the rise in recent weeks after coming up a bit short all season. 18:10 goals for away is unfavourable to expectation on this matchday, but overall it has provided balance (as you can look up in the overall stats).
The average goal difference is of course high under these circumstances. Especially the 4:4 in Dortmund provided a high deviation. Furthermore, there were once again too many goals, but the overall deviation is still low.
| Die Festlegung erwartet | ||||||
| Paarung | 1 | X | 2 | |||
| Dortmund | Stuttgart | 75.41% | 15.52% | 9.08% | 60.10% | |
| Nürnberg | FC Bayern | 14.10% | 21.43% | 64.47% | 48.14% | |
| Kaiserslautern | HSV | 31.55% | 29.16% | 39.29% | 33.89% | |
| Augsburg | FC Köln | 49.56% | 24.42% | 26.01% | 37.30% | |
| Werder | Mainz | 52.58% | 22.73% | 24.69% | 38.91% | |
| Leverkusen | Freiburg | 61.09% | 19.78% | 19.12% | 44.90% | |
| Hertha | Wolfsburg | 40.10% | 24.90% | 35.00% | 34.53% | |
| Hannover | Gladbach | 37.86% | 27.84% | 34.30% | 33.85% | |
| Hoffenheim | Schalke 04 | 29.77% | 25.61% | 44.63% | 35.33% | |
| 3.92 | 2.11 | 2.97 | 3.67 | |||
| durchschnittlich erwartete Festlegung: | 40.77% |
Here, always as a reminder, are the values from the previous week. The main point is that the expected commitment is calculated here once again in a comprehensible way.
| Die Festlegung eingetroffen | ||||||
| Paarung | 1 | X | 2 | Tendenz | ||
| Dortmund | Stuttgart | 75.41% | 15.52% | 9.08% | 0 | 15.52% |
| Nürnberg | FC Bayern | 14.10% | 21.43% | 64.47% | 2 | 64.47% |
| Kaiserslautern | HSV | 31.55% | 29.16% | 39.29% | 2 | 39.29% |
| Augsburg | FC Köln | 49.56% | 24.42% | 26.01% | 1 | 49.56% |
| Werder | Mainz | 52.58% | 22.73% | 24.69% | 2 | 24.69% |
| Leverkusen | Freiburg | 61.09% | 19.78% | 19.12% | 2 | 19.12% |
| Hertha | Wolfsburg | 40.10% | 24.90% | 35.00% | 2 | 35.00% |
| Hannover | Gladbach | 37.86% | 27.84% | 34.30% | 1 | 37.86% |
| Hoffenheim | Schalke 04 | 29.77% | 25.61% | 44.63% | 0 | 25.61% |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 3.11 | |||
| durchschnittlich eingetroffene Festlegung: | 34.57% |
A matchday of outsiders. On Friday evening, it already started in a highly dramatic way with the 4:4, although Dortmund was not only clearly in control for a long time, but also played exhilarating football once again. 16:2 shots on goal in half 1 are gigantic and unparalleled. Talking about a “deserved” draw for Stuttgart is simply nonsense. Then you have simply forgotten the 1st half.
Mainz was an outsider’s success (even though there were some warnings here a week ago about betting on Werder because of the many injured), as was that of Freiburg in Leverkusen. Just how big a surprise this was can be seen in the reaction of those responsible: Dismissal of the coach.
Furthermore, both Wolfsburg in Berlin and the draw in Hoffenheim were surprising results, as the favourites did not materialise. All in all, this was a matchday with far less than expected results.
