International comparison of point and goal deviations

In this category, international comparisons are to be made with regard to point and goal deviations on average. Originally, there was talk that the German leagues (the LigEN) are more exciting than others because they are less predictable. This could be reflected in the changes in tendency (another category also to be found here), but also in the point and goal deviations. If these are very high, then there have been many surprises, on the one hand in the sense of “who wins?” on the other hand in the sense of high, sensational results, regardless of who wins. This provides entertainment, of which there is too little, according to the generally held view here. Football has become a pure fan sport in which one supports one’s team unconditionally, but is no longer interested in the course of the game or beautiful actions, exciting moments.

1) International point deviations

Place Country League 1 ø Point Deviation Change from previous week Number of games
1 Germany, 2.BL 6.33 0.21 288
2 France 1 5.58 0.61 330
3 England 1 5.08 -0.13 345
4 Germany, 1.BL 4.53 -0.26 288
5 Italy 1 4.37 0.32 329
6 Spain 1 3.48 0.06 340

The 2nd league remains in front. What is surprising about it – apart from certain outlier results such as those of Bochum, Duisburg and Paderborn – is the disjointed table picture. In fact, in the league of which it was once said (without now having any proof to the contrary) that anyone can beat anyone and that the 40-point rule for staying in the class therefore had much more face than in League 1, it is the case that from 10th place onwards all teams have broken this rule, meaning that half the league would have to be relegated. This was an absolute rarity. However, it is questionable whether one can conclude anything from this for the future. Every now and then, such table pictures simply emerge without there being a system behind them, which one has not recognised or which one would have to map out for the future, in the expectations.

This is different in League 1 (Germany’s League 1), where there could possibly be a system behind the more and more distorted picture of the table, since the financial gap is widening first, followed by the performance gap. Especially since this is exactly what the role models abroad are for.

Despite the moderate deviations this season and most of the decisions that were actually made rather too early from the fans’ point of view, one can of course by no means speak of boredom in the Bundesliga. Nevertheless, it is possible that there is a worrying development to observe. Alarming means that one should think about it. Most of those who raise the issue – of course, rather those who can’t get their hands on the fleshpots and look for and find reasons for it – do so without statistical evidence. They observe, want to sign new, better players and find that they simply cannot finance the desired players and that those instead go to the financially stronger teams and even prefer to stew on the bench there than to be allowed to stand on the pitch at an underdog for less money. In any case, the computer provides statistical evidence that it could happen that the league becomes more boring, more predictable. Strained league tables are one consequence of this, which of course at the same time robs the league of some of its excitement.

2) International goal deviations

Place Country League 1 ø Goal difference Change from previous week Number of games
1 Germany, 2.BL 10.36 0.30 288
2 Germany, 1.BL 8.85 -0.30 288
3 England 1 7.50 0.26 345
4 Italy 1 6.35 0.95 329
5 France 1 5.74 1.02 330
6 Spain 1 5.39 -0.33 340

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