International comparison of point and goal deviations
|Position||Country League 1||ø Point deviation||Change from previous week||Number of games|
These deviations of the international top leagues (the 2nd German league was integrated) give a measure of the surprises in these leagues. The greater the deviation, the greater the surprises. As you can see, the German leagues form antipodes at the moment. One leads the ranking (clearly), the other is at the bottom of the table.
If you look a little closer (at the current tables), you might notice that this is quite justified. While one can hardly think of a surprise team in the 1st league – except Gladbach – it is somewhat different in the 2nd league. There, Aachen or Duisburg, also the KSC, are at the bottom of the table, while Paderborn and Fürth (quite superior, that would be the surprising thing) are right at the top. Bochum (negative) or Braunschweig (positive) could also pass as surprises.
In addition, the entire time league table is extremely spread out this season. In other seasons, the teams were much closer together. Two wins in a row you play for promotion, then two defeats you fight against relegation. This season there are huge gaps and this, one may confidently say, was not foreseeable (for the computer at least) because of the previous history. The teams are ranked with not so big performance gaps before the season.
|Position||Country League 1||ø Goal difference||Change from previous week||Number of games|
This clearly changed picture provides a certain statement, which also finds confirmation when looking back. The 1st division suddenly in 2nd place, which indicates plenty of surprises (in comparison), on the other hand, in last place in terms of points, which indicates few surprises. How does this fit together?
The explanation is quite simple: there were many very high scores, which made for a high goal difference. The Bavarians alone (who are perhaps always the ones you look at most closely), with their several very clear victories (7:0, 7:0, 7:1, 6:0), ensured that the favourite won, but at the same time provoked a high goal difference. In this respect, the 1st Division did provide enough moments of suspense (in this sense) that it is at the top internationally. Whether the economy associated with “result management” from other leagues, on the other hand, brings international advantages (compared to Germany), international comparisons must show. However, the results in the European Cup competitions up to this point are quite satisfactory from a German point of view, so that one cannot necessarily speak of revealing tactical deficiencies.