1) The Betting Market
a. Name: “The Betting Market2.doc”.
b. Content: The entire betting market is explained. Past and present are also contrasted.
c. Assessment: Good and readable, indispensable too. A key chapter.
2) The fair bet
a. Name: “The fair bet.doc”.
b. Content: There is no such thing as a really fair bet. Plus two quite interesting little problems (a draw by telephone, 50-50 game where the parties react interdependently).
c. Assessment: Well, a few interesting considerations. Overall, however, not fully developed or covered by other chapters. The two problems, however, are quite interesting.
3) Own assessments
a. Name: “Own assessments.doc”.
b. Content: One should be able to create one’s own assessments in order to be able to play successfully in the betting market.
c. Assessment: Altogether too short and dispensable, better explained elsewhere.
4) Expected value and equity
a. Name: “Expected value and equity.doc”.
b. Content: The terms are discussed briefly, more by example. Two other interesting examples are presented: The envelope problem and the quiz show problem.
c. Assessment: All quite interesting. The title is not quite right because the terms are only used. But in any case, the whole thing is usable.
5) Football programme mathematically
a. Name: “Football programme mathematical.doc”.
b. Contents: The mathematical component of my football programme, i.e. my basic idea, is explained quite precisely. The calculability of football or the unpredictability is explained.
c. Assessment: Prerequisite for the chapters “The Betting Market” and “My System”. It is well written and understandable. One of the core pieces. But very extensive.
6) Football betting
a. Name: “Football Betting.doc
b. Content: Explains the system with probabilities and fair odds.
c. Assessment: Everything it says is somehow true. The question is what prerequisites the reader has at the time. Not quite goal-oriented and also covered in other chapters. However, a few aspects could be used (the other chapters: “How a quota is created”, “The betting market”, “My system”).
7) Approach to the problem of verifiability of forecast quality
a. Name: “Approach3.doc”.
b. Content: The reader should gradually be sensitised to the very real problem: In practice, there are only random experiments that are only carried out once under the given circumstances. The probabilities of occurrence are unknown, and this is fairly certain (there are only attempts to approximate the probabilities). Nevertheless, one can do more than just find out whether it has occurred or not. One can check a forecast in the long term. In reality, of course, it is not the individual forecasts that are checked but the quality of the person who made them.
c. Assessment: A very difficult subject. However, it is explained very well and in detail on 28 pages. The diversions is taken via very simple and therefore very illustrative experiments, which are also familiar to mathematicians, to reality. It is good, it is a central and at the same time revolutionary method that I have found with it. Whether it can be put in a book “for everyone” is somewhat questionable. Nor does it seem to me that improvements can be made to the text. The reader would have to be properly prepared to swallow it, no, better: to have a real appetite for it.
8) My system
a. Name: “My System.doc
b. Contents: My betting system is explained in great detail and very basic. Single, system and combination bets, a few examples, the secret of success, so to speak.
c. Assessment: Well explained, everything you need is included. But it could also be a deterrent because it cannot be copied. On the other hand: why not discourage? Being good or not doing it are both good options. Those who still want to do it can still learn a lot.
9) The perfect betting game
a. Name: “PerfectTippspiel.doc”.
b. Content: The explanation of the application of the previously explained method with which one can check the quality of predictions. However, if one wants to compare a prediction not (only) with oneself but also with other predictions, the method presented here is a good choice. And it really is perfect, although it was developed by me. It is also unique.
c. Assessment: Good to have. I can achieve the mathematical credibility well, and it is also instructive. Problem just like the one before: Can you keep normal readers with something like this?
10) Tennis
a. Name: “Tennis.doc
b. Content: The explanation of the tennis programme and the improved prediction algorithm found with it. But in principle covered in the “rating systems”. On the other hand, it also explains a little bit the development up to finding the method.
c. Assessment: It is quite interesting. The method itself, the algorithm, is without doubt excellent. But in evaluation systems it is completely treated. If, one would have to highlight the way to find it (biographically?).
11) Tipster games
a. Name: “Tippspiele.doc
b. Content: Other betting games are examined and their value or fairness doubted. Prerequisite for chapter “The perfect betting game”.
c. Assessment: Can be explained before, but nothing special.
12) Turnover
a. Name: “Turnovers.doc
b. Content: Explains the importance of turnovers for the professional player. What others consider “risky”, especially for this business, is a basic requirement to be able to run the business at all. It is also quantified!
c. Assessment: Must go in, of course. Important aspects about gambling in general compared to other business enterprises.
13) Independent events
a. Name: “Independent Events.doc
b. Content: The law of multiplication of probabilities in independent events should be explained with examples.
c. Assessment: Very confused. Not usable in this form. If. the partially interesting aspects should be better ordered.
14) How does a quota arise?
a. Name: “How a quota is created.doc”.
b. Content: The title is not quite right. Almost all the mathematics required for professional playing is derived.
c. Assessment: Absolutely exemplary chapter. Very detailed and understandable.
15) How often does a double come?
a. Name: “How often does a double come?
b. Content: The mathematical explanation for the problem occurring in the chapter “Pasch-Jürgen”.
c. Evaluation: Since one already encounters a great deal of incomprehension with such a simple problem, it makes sense to explain something like this. It shows in a simple way a very common method of thinking.
16) The connection between probability and odds
a. Name: “WkeitQuote.doc”.
b. Content: The connection between probability and odds should be explained.
c. Assessment: Quite an interesting chapter after all. Contains a few other considerations that can absolutely also be meaningful and useful.
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