Evaluation of the bets from the 34th matchday
Pairing 1 X 2
| Hannover | Kaiserslautern | 1.39 | 5.10 | 9.80 |
| Hertha | Hoffenheim | 1.93 | 3.95 | 3.80 |
| Nürnberg | Leverkusen | 2.62 | 3.65 | 2.72 |
| FC Köln | FC Bayern | 4.60 | 4.10 | 1.75 |
| Mainz | Gladbach | 2.48 | 3.55 | 2.90 |
| Augsburg | HSV | 2.52 | 3.50 | 2.92 |
| Dortmund | Freiburg | 1.35 | 5.50 | 9.60 |
| Werder | Schalke 04 | 2.56 | 3.65 | 2.80 |
| Stuttgart | Wolfsburg | 2.08 | 3.90 | 3.65 |
Goals scored 0.54
Goals scored 1
Money score 1.08
Once again, the colours explain: only one bet was actually placed, namely the one on Stuttgart. This one came in, which results in dark blue. The light blue ones are the ones that came in, which were recommended but were expressly NOT to be used for the evaluation. The two in purple are the recommended ones that have not arrived, but are also not evaluated.
The one match that was recommended and evaluated, Stuttgart at home against Wolfsburg, naturally came about in a most remarkable way. For: Stuttgart was already two goals behind and it was over the 70th minute. Then it happened within a good six minutes that Stuttgart scored THREE goals and turned the game around to win.
Certainly extremely fortunate circumstances, one would not want to conceal this under any circumstances. On the other hand, it had been argued here that Wolfsburg’s motivation could be dependent on the score in Hannover. As Hannover were bottom of the table, it was easy to imagine that Hannover would set their sights on victory early on, and that Wolfsburg would play for nothing. On the other hand, it was also clear that Stuttgart, if Leverkusen were in the lead, would be playing for the golden pineapple. It was noted, however, that Stuttgart’s pineapple was a little more golden than Wolfsburg’s, because they wanted to make as good an impression as possible in front of their own fans. The fact is that Hannover scored late on to make it 2-1, Wolfsburg then realised it wouldn’t be enough, and Stuttgart then scored the goals. Coach Magath also noted this fact in the interview. In this respect, despite the unexpectedly curious course of the game in Hanover as well, what was well thought possible ultimately came true. In this respect, one would declare the bet good in retrospect, especially since the summary showed that Stuttgart already had a few good chances in the opening phase.
The bet on Kaiserslautern, even if not taken, was also ok so far. They took the lead and played as well as they could, and that wasn’t bad at all. Before conceding the goal, Lautern had a good double chance and could even have taken the lead, so in that respect everything is ok with that bet as well.
Hoffenheim was of course to be treated with extreme caution. The sending-off was very curious, one could almost say totally unjustified. It was already 1:0 for Hertha at that point, but Hoffenheim had shown by then that they were ready to implement the coach’s instructions. In the extremely tense final phase, they almost forced an equaliser with 10 men. Nevertheless, the bet would have been ok, even if one can expect such a sending-off rather when one has to and one doesn’t need to. In any case, it’s easy for the referee because he can be sure that he hasn’t done anything decisive against the player who was disadvantaged on the pitch.
Bayern also got serious, as was announced here in principle. They simply play football and want to win. That’s what they did. The quality clearly spoke for them, which was also argued in this space a week ago.
Augsburg also won the game, and it had been argued well for them.
The same goes for Dortmund. They made short work of Freiburg. However, the odds were of course not particularly high at 1.35.
Good reasons had also been found for Schalke – the most important one here: Werder just don’t play that well. At the same time, Huntelaar still had something to do and did it impressively.
In total, 2.42 units were “given away” on the missed bets this week as well, which would have been won. Since this was the same for the previous week (with a similar result), one has to regret a little not having simply played the indicated bets after good reasoning and thinking. In any case, the self-confidence that everyone in the Bundesliga will play as well as they can until the end and that nothing will be given away anywhere, insofar as the computer is reliable, will grow considerably.
Evaluation of the individual match days
This is the evaluation of the individual match days, sorted chronologically.
Matchday No. Number of bets Number of hits Expected hits Hit deviation Win/loss
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2.84 | +2.16 | +7.96 |
| 2 | 7 | 3 | 2.77 | +0.23 | +1.75 |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.14 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| 5 | 6 | 2 | 2.54 | -0.54 | -2.33 |
| 6 | 8 | 3 | 2.29 | +0.71 | +8.10 |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | 3.55 | +0.45 | +0.00 |
| 8 | 5 | 1 | 1.28 | -0.28 | -2.16 |
| 9 | 7 | 3 | 2.36 | +0.64 | +5.60 |
| 10 | 7 | 1 | 1.92 | -0.92 | +2.20 |
| 11 | 8 | 2 | 2.79 | -0.79 | -3.39 |
| 12 | 7 | 1 | 2.07 | -1.07 | -2.00 |
| 13 | 6 | 4 | 2.77 | +1.23 | +5.37 |
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 2.63 | -0.63 | +4.68 |
| 15 | 6 | 1 | 2.18 | -1.18 | -4.65 |
| 16 | 6 | 2 | 2.13 | -0.13 | -0.53 |
| 17 | 7 | 3 | 3.13 | -0.13 | -0.54 |
| 18 | 7 | 3 | 2.57 | +0.43 | +2.34 |
| 19 | 4 | 1 | 1.51 | -0.51 | -1.70 |
| 20 | 6 | 2 | 2.32 | -0.32 | +0.63 |
| 21 | 8 | 2 | 3.02 | -1.02 | -3.73 |
| 22 | 8 | 4 | 2.85 | +1.15 | +2.19 |
| 23 | 5 | 1 | 2.19 | -1.19 | -3.24 |
| 24 | 9 | 2 | 3.24 | -1.24 | -0.30 |
| 25 | 6 | 2 | 2.63 | -0.63 | -1.67 |
| 26 | 7 | 5 | 2.54 | +2.46 | +8.43 |
| 27 | 7 | 3 | 3.51 | -0.51 | -0.94 |
| 28 | 6 | 1 | 2.21 | -1.21 | -3.10 |
| 29 | 6 | 3 | 3.21 | -0.21 | +0.55 |
| 30 | 5 | 3 | 2.03 | +0.97 | +3.27 |
| 31 | 4 | 1 | 1.47 | -0.47 | -2.07 |
| 32 | 6 | 1 | 2.8 | -1.80 | -4.07 |
| 33 | 3 | 2 | 1.61 | +0.39 | +1.07 |
| 34 | 1 | 1 | 0.54 | +0.46 | +1.08 |
All good, then. At least they didn’t get hurt in the final stages. that’s good anyway.
Overall betting statistics
This is the running total after evaluation of the individual match days
Total number of bets Total number of hits Total balance G/V in% Total expected hits Total hit deviation
| 7 | 5 | +7.96 | 113.71% | 2.84 | +2.16 |
| 14 | 8 | +9.71 | 69.36% | 5.61 | +2.39 |
| 16 | 8 | +7.71 | 48.19% | 6.61 | +1.39 |
| 19 | 9 | +7.43 | 39.11% | 7.74 | +1.26 |
| 25 | 11 | +5.10 | 20.40% | 10.28 | +0.72 |
| 33 | 14 | +13.20 | 40.00% | 12.57 | +1.43 |
| 41 | 18 | +13.20 | 32.20% | 16.12 | +1.88 |
| 46 | 19 | +11.04 | 24.00% | 17.40 | +1.60 |
| 53 | 22 | +16.64 | 31.40% | 19.76 | +2.24 |
| 60 | 23 | +18.84 | 31.40% | 21.68 | +1.32 |
| 68 | 25 | +15.45 | 22.72% | 24.47 | +0.53 |
| 75 | 26 | +13.45 | 17.93% | 26.54 | -0.54 |
| 81 | 30 | +18.82 | 23.23% | 29.31 | +0.69 |
| 88 | 32 | +23.50 | 26.70% | 31.94 | +0.06 |
| 94 | 33 | +18.85 | 20.05% | 34.12 | -1.12 |
| 100 | 35 | +18.32 | 18.32% | 36.25 | -1.25 |
| 107 | 38 | +17.78 | 16.62% | 39.38 | -1.38 |
| 114 | 41 | +20.12 | 17.65% | 41.95 | -0.95 |
| 118 | 42 | +18.42 | 15.61% | 43.46 | -1.46 |
| 124 | 44 | +19.05 | 15.36% | 45.78 | -1.78 |
| 132 | 46 | +15.32 | 11.61% | 48.80 | -2.80 |
| 140 | 50 | +17.51 | 12.51% | 51.65 | -1.65 |
| 145 | 51 | +14.27 | 9.84% | 53.84 | -2.84 |
| 154 | 53 | +13.97 | 9.07% | 57.08 | -4.08 |
| 160 | 55 | +12.30 | 7.69% | 59.71 | -4.71 |
| 167 | 60 | +20.73 | 12.41% | 62.25 | -2.25 |
| 174 | 63 | +19.79 | 11.37% | 65.76 | -2.76 |
| 180 | 64 | +16.69 | 9.27% | 67.97 | -3.97 |
| 186 | 67 | +17.24 | 9.27% | 71.18 | -4.18 |
| 191 | 70 | +20.51 | 10.74% | 72.68 | -2.68 |
| 195 | 71 | +18.44 | 9.46% | 74.15 | -3.15 |
| 201 | 72 | +14.37 | 7.15% | 76.95 | -4.95 |
| 204 | 74 | +15.44 | 7.57% | 78.56 | -4.56 |
| 205 | 75 | +16.52 | 8.06% | 79.10 | -4.10 |
In the end, one should simply look at the result. And that is satisfactory with 8.06%, there is no question about that.
If you paid attention during the week, as the bets were always selected and recorded on Monday, a somewhat higher profit was certainly possible. Especially since you might have received better odds from time to time with another betting provider. On the other hand, you have to pay about 5% rake at the betting exchange, but only if you win, which costs about 2.5% of the winnings (in reality a little less, since you won less than half of the bets).
With the 205 games bet (out of a total of 306), we at least have proof that the computer always finds something to “complain” about compared to the betting market. This is encouraging insofar as one always has something to play with.
