Evaluation of the bets from the 29th matchday
Pairing 1 X 2
| Wolfsburg | Dortmund | 5.80 | 4.20 | 1.62 |
| Freiburg | Nürnberg | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| FC Köln | Werder | 2.90 | 3.55 | 2.50 |
| Kaiserslautern | Hoffenheim | 2.74 | 3.45 | 2.72 |
| FC Bayern | Augsburg | 1.14 | 10.00 | 24.00 |
| Stuttgart | Mainz | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.65 |
| Gladbach | Hertha | 1.64 | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| Schalke 04 | Hannover | 1.73 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| HSV | Leverkusen | 2.74 | 3.60 | 2.62 |
Goals scored 3.21
Goals scored 3
Money score 0.55
Sure the result is always ok if you win. At first, there is little doubt about the individual bets, because if you win, you simply bask in the success. On the other hand, it is precisely then that objectivity is required. The reason for this, perhaps not entirely obvious, but it is also a matter of attitude to life and quality of life: if one simply ticks off a winning day (as most people presumably do, before becoming aware of what has been said here), then there is a danger that one will misjudge individual playing days or, speaking generally from the gambler’s life, individual losing days, losses in general, as “bad luck”.
One has accepted the win, ignored the luck that one needed for it, but one very much laments the bad luck that brings one the loss (and also there, as a rule, inevitably comes along). This leads to the bad life feeling of permanent bad luck. Won – everything is “normal”. Lost – bad luck. This is precisely the erroneous perception, so think calmly, even if you win. What was the quality of your own bets? (of course, a poker or backgammon player could just as well ask himself this question, even if he won).
The Hoffenheim bet had been declared good, with only the slight doubt that Hoffenheim would be satisfied for a moment as the relegation places were already some way away. Well, they brushed that doubt aside, but not by the result but by the performance. They wanted to win the game, that was clear. And as I said, the doubts were small, because all the teams at the back were scoring (except Lautern) and so there was no time and no reason to rest. Back it up with class, then maybe we can breathe a sigh of relief.
The bet on Augsburg was as good as a bet for odds of 24.0 can be. They had their chances, they were denied a penalty, and it was 1-1 for a while (until the 60th minute). You can’t get much closer than that. All good, then.
The bet on Gladbach was a pure disaster. This game was one of the worst I’ve seen from the Bundesliga in years. I also couldn’t shake the feeling throughout that Gladbach didn’t want to win at all. A point was ok for them, Hertha agreed as it could be valuable for them in the relegation fight and, if they hadn’t “accepted” (some kind of draw offer, whether on the pitch or even before?!), they could of course have fought for three points – but with a great chance could also have gone away completely empty-handed. I never had any doubt that Gladbach really wouldn’t score (I was watching in twos, so there’s a witness), I was vindicated. As a bet, it was bad, of course, and there was no chance. However, the bet wasn’t overly glossed over either, the doubts about Gladbach’s commitment (due to pretty much certain qualification for Champions League Quali) noted.
The bet on Schalke, of course, was very good, as expressed not only by the result. It was well argued for here – and there was confirmation. All is well with the bet.
Leverkusen’s victory had not been over-supported either. HSV is fighting for survival, Leverkusen in transition, with a new coach and a disastrous series. Well, for that the bet was ok, as far as one could judge. A 1:1 is always comparatively close with such odds and there were also chances, so far ok.
Overall, the result reflects the quality of the bets quite well. All in all, a small plus that fits.
Evaluation of the individual match days
This is the evaluation of the individual match days, sorted chronologically.
Matchday No. Number of bets Number of hits expected hit deviation win/loss
| 1 | 7 | 5 | 2.84 | +2.16 | +7.96 |
| 2 | 7 | 3 | 2.77 | +0.23 | +1.75 |
| 3 | 2 | 0 | 1.00 | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.14 | -0.14 | -0.28 |
| 5 | 6 | 2 | 2.54 | -0.54 | -2.33 |
| 6 | 8 | 3 | 2.29 | +0.71 | +8.10 |
| 7 | 8 | 4 | 3.55 | +0.45 | +0.00 |
| 8 | 5 | 1 | 1.28 | -0.28 | -2.16 |
| 9 | 7 | 3 | 2.36 | +0.64 | +5.60 |
| 10 | 7 | 1 | 1.92 | -0.92 | +2.20 |
| 11 | 8 | 2 | 2.79 | -0.79 | -3.39 |
| 12 | 7 | 1 | 2.07 | -1.07 | -2.00 |
| 13 | 6 | 4 | 2.77 | +1.23 | +5.37 |
| 14 | 7 | 2 | 2.63 | -0.63 | +4.68 |
| 15 | 6 | 1 | 2.18 | -1.18 | -4.65 |
| 16 | 6 | 2 | 2.13 | -0.13 | -0.53 |
| 17 | 7 | 3 | 3.13 | -0.13 | -0.54 |
| 18 | 7 | 3 | 2.57 | +0.43 | +2.34 |
| 19 | 4 | 1 | 1.51 | -0.51 | -1.70 |
| 20 | 6 | 2 | 2.32 | -0.32 | +0.63 |
| 21 | 8 | 2 | 3.02 | -1.02 | -3.73 |
| 22 | 8 | 4 | 2.85 | +1.15 | +2.19 |
| 23 | 5 | 1 | 2.19 | -1.19 | -3.24 |
| 24 | 9 | 2 | 3.24 | -1.24 | -0.30 |
| 25 | 6 | 2 | 2.63 | -0.63 | -1.67 |
| 26 | 7 | 5 | 2.54 | +2.46 | +8.43 |
| 27 | 7 | 3 | 3.51 | -0.51 | -0.94 |
| 28 | 6 | 1 | 2.21 | -1.21 | -3.10 |
| 29 | 6 | 3 | 3.21 | -0.21 | +0.55 |
But, admittedly: the black numbers feel better.
Total betting statistics
This is the running total after evaluation of the individual match days
Total number of bets Total number of hits Total balance G/V in% Total expected hits Total hit deviation
| 7 | 5 | +7.96 | 113.71% | 2.84 | +2.16 |
| 14 | 8 | +9.71 | 69.36% | 5.61 | +2.39 |
| 16 | 8 | +7.71 | 48.19% | 6.61 | +1.39 |
| 19 | 9 | +7.43 | 39.11% | 7.74 | +1.26 |
| 25 | 11 | +5.10 | 20.40% | 10.28 | +0.72 |
| 33 | 14 | +13.20 | 40.00% | 12.57 | +1.43 |
| 41 | 18 | +13.20 | 32.20% | 16.12 | +1.88 |
| 46 | 19 | +11.04 | 24.00% | 17.40 | +1.60 |
| 53 | 22 | +16.64 | 31.40% | 19.76 | +2.24 |
| 60 | 23 | +18.84 | 31.40% | 21.68 | +1.32 |
| 68 | 25 | +15.45 | 22.72% | 24.47 | +0.53 |
| 75 | 26 | +13.45 | 17.93% | 26.54 | -0.54 |
| 81 | 30 | +18.82 | 23.23% | 29.31 | +0.69 |
| 88 | 32 | +23.50 | 26.70% | 31.94 | +0.06 |
| 94 | 33 | +18.85 | 20.05% | 34.12 | -1.12 |
| 100 | 35 | +18.32 | 18.32% | 36.25 | -1.25 |
| 107 | 38 | +17.78 | 16.62% | 39.38 | -1.38 |
| 114 | 41 | +20.12 | 17.65% | 41.95 | -0.95 |
| 118 | 42 | +18.42 | 15.61% | 43.46 | -1.46 |
| 124 | 44 | +19.05 | 15.36% | 45.78 | -1.78 |
| 132 | 46 | +15.32 | 11.61% | 48.80 | -2.80 |
| 140 | 50 | +17.51 | 12.51% | 51.65 | -1.65 |
| 145 | 51 | +14.27 | 9.84% | 53.84 | -2.84 |
| 154 | 53 | +13.97 | 9.07% | 57.08 | -4.08 |
| 160 | 55 | +12.30 | 7.69% | 59.71 | -4.71 |
| 167 | 60 | +20.73 | 12.41% | 62.25 | -2.25 |
| 174 | 63 | +19.79 | 11.37% | 65.76 | -2.76 |
| 180 | 64 | +16.69 | 9.27% | 67.97 | -3.97 |
| 186 | 67 | +17.24 | 9.27% | 71.18 | -4.18 |
Well, the winning percentage was confirmed exactly, which means that they won about 0.55 units per match day. Yes, yes, that sounds good, one could live well with that, even in the longer term.
