This week, too, we will write down a few interesting facts, figures and opinions about the past matchday and also offer an outlook on the upcoming last matchday of the first half of the season. Of course, a comparison with the figures from the previous week will also be included.
There are many questions waiting to be answered. The weekly shifts in the chances in the title race are pretty much the most boring question at the moment, as Borussia Dortmund has also mastered the potential hurdle of Werder Bremen with flying colours. However, the relegation question naturally promises excitement, also in view of the results that even led to the sacking of the coach (the second of the season) for VfB Stuttgart, for example, but also the eventual tidying up of the table picture is being watched carefully.
1) Review of the matches
First, here are the results of matchday 16:
Hannover 96 – VfB Stuttgart 2:1 (1:0)
Hamburger SV – Bayer Leverkusen 2:4 (0:1)
FC Bayern Munich – FC St. Pauli 3:0 (1:0)
- FC Kaiserslautern – VfL Wolfsburg 0:0
TSG Hoffenheim – 1. FC Nürnberg 1:1 (0:0) - FC Cologne – Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0 (0:0)
Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen 2:0 (1:0)
SC Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach 3:0 (2:0)
FSV Mainz 05 – FC Schalke 04 0:1 (0:1)
A general observation:
The total goal count of 21 shows that possibly indeed the correction of the goal average is now taking place, as already cautiously suggested. In winter, the playing fields are often worse (although this problem has hardly shown itself so far), and positional and scoring battles begin, pointing in the direction of fewer goals through more caution.
Now the games in detail:
Hannover 96 – VfB Stuttgart 2:1 (1:0).
Well, there would certainly be a lot to say about this game. It is striking that Hannover have had luck on their side throughout the season. Even if they were the better team in the first half, Stuttgart deserved the equaliser and the goal that gave them the lead again was very surprising and certainly – despite Stuttgart’s proven defensive negligence – due to a few lucky circumstances, especially as it happened “in the post”.
What is confirmed, however, is that short-term tendencies seem to gain more weight. Hannover has the self-confidence, has won the previous matches – fortunately or not – has nothing to lose and inspires the fans who are open to it. The spark is spreading. General assessments like “Stuttgart is the better team” or “has the better individual players” hardly carry any weight any more. Even if it remains the case that the success was achieved with a little bit of luck.
The dismissal of the coach should not be commented on in detail. Only this much, that one is also forced by media “help” to react to very short-term events. Pointing out catastrophic performances or, as a consequence, results spills over to the fans, who then simply vote. Basically, the view is held that performances shown or even coaching signatures should be observed over much longer periods of time in order to be able to judge them. Pure results thinking in no way leads to improved conditions. In other words, whether Stuttgart manage to stay in the relegation zone does not depend on the coach but on a number of factors, one of which is certainly luck.
Hamburger SV – Bayer Leverkusen 2:4 (0:1)
Here, too, the trend indicated above is evident. HSV’s crisis was confirmed, while Leverkusen continued their positive run. The victory was well deserved, as the summary showed.
FC Bayern Munich – FC St. Pauli 3:0 (1:0)
If the pictures seen in the summary are to be trusted, then this result was much clearer than the course of the game indicated. St. Pauli with some great chances, at least one of which should have led to a goal, to see if it would then become exciting.
On the other hand, Bayern can be trusted to be able to react appropriately to one. But it was the game with the greatest probability of victory ever assumed by the computer. When the number 1 (before the season, but also now solidly in 2nd place with Dortmund just behind in playing strength) meets the 18 in the home match, the computer hardly has a choice. In this respect, the “befitting” fits here.
- FC Kaiserslautern – VfL Wolfsburg 0:0
Even though Kaiserslautern have proven their Bundesliga suitability throughout the season, one may gradually be disappointed by Wolfsburg. Of course, the course of this match also confirmed the theories put forward for the first match: Only short-term tendencies count. The differences in playing strength are so small that you can compensate for them by playing with your increased self-confidence.
The draw was Wolfsburg’s 5th in a row. Surely they are still a little afraid of a repeat after the nightmare experiences against Mainz and Leverkusen and therefore play more cautiously? In any case, the game deserved only one winner: Kaiserslautern.
The game would be suitable for setting the record straight. Even if a draw away from home is never a disaster, it certainly failed to correct the table. Wolfsburg’s goals for the season are slipping behind the horizon by quite a lot.
TSG Hoffenheim – 1. FC Nürnberg 1:1 (0:0)
In itself, this was a football demonstration that Hoffenheim delivered here. There were so many – in the author’s choice of live match – opportunities for the home side from the start, so that the draw for Nürnberg is not only flattering, but extremely fortunate and really undeserved.
Of course, to speak of failures in finishing does not do justice to the matter at all. It is x times very close that the 1st – which would leave more time for the 2nd – and later the 2nd would fall, where each time only small things, which have nothing to do with incompetence, stand in the way, for which there is only one meaningful and adequate term: That was bad luck.
After all, the 1:0 was scored and logically we would have settled for this narrow victory, but shortly before the end, the Nuremberg team, which had nevertheless come into the game a little better, actually equalised with one action, and that makes the bad luck complete.
Hoffenheim has the potential to go even higher, as was shown not only in this game. Nuremberg is certainly suitable for the Bundesliga, because their inferiority in this match was by no means due to their own weakness.
- FC Cologne – Eintracht Frankfurt 1:0 (0:0)
This match report is also quite clear. In fact, Cologne was the lucky winner. In any case, the first half went so clearly to Frankfurt that there should have been a Frankfurt lead at the break. Even if Cologne then got into the game better, it was still pretty clear. A lucky victory.
Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen 2:0 (1:0)
Dortmund showed that self-confidence but also the class of the leaders from the start, who left no doubt about it…. We want to win this game and we can win it. Here, too, it’s hardly worth making a preliminary assessment of two teams at eye level. Of course Werder has a few players out of action, but Dortmund’s performance was convincing.
Of course, you first have to score the first goal – the perfect free kick into the corner – but the match conditions were too clear, the 1:0 at the break not a sufficient reward for the superiority.
In the 2nd half, however, Werder really worked their way into the game. At first, the game was evenly balanced, then even a little in Werder’s favour. The penalty against Pizarro, which was not given, was of course the critical scene that could have turned everything around. As much as it is argued elsewhere in favour of penalties in general, here you can definitely take Weidenfeller’s view that he stays away to some extent, even if there is contact.
The equaliser would have been deserved at that moment, because Werder really had a few chances in a row and some spectators surely wanted it, to finally get some discussion material for the question of the champions. Viewed over the entire match, however, Dortmund’s victory was absolutely deserved.
SC Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach 3:0 (2:0)
Again, the tendency is confirmed: Whoever is on top has self-confidence and – luck. Gladbach had the first big chance and one of those just has to go in. In general, they were the better team for the first 20 minutes, until Cissé got the ball in the penalty area – but in true goalscorer style – and the score was 1:0. From then on, however, Gladbach’s dominance was pretty much over, and Freiburg won their first “landslide” – all the previous victories with only a one-goal difference – quite confidently.
FSV Mainz 05 – FC Schalke 04 0:1 (0:1)
The only match which had a certain corrective tendency – and in which this was also used. The Mainz performance was as passionate as ever, and the spectators were also very eager. Of course, there were several scenes in which the course of the game and the result could have turned out differently – among others a few wrong decisions complained about by the crowd – but Schalke was still the slightly better team. World class Raul, who in so many scenes held the ball in such a most amazing way, but never forgot his eye for his teammate.
2) The table situation
First of all, here is the table:
Table after the 16th matchday 2010/2011
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff1 Borussia Dortmund 16 14 1 43 39 – 9 +30
2 Bayer Leverkusen 16 9 5 2 32 33 – 23 +10
3 Hannover 96 16 10 1 5 31 24 – 24 +0
4 FSV Mainz 05 16 10 0 6 30 26 – 17 +9
5 SC Freiburg 16 9 0 7 27 23 – 23 +0
6 FC Bayern München 16 7 5 4 26 26 – 17 +9
7 TSG Hoffenheim 16 6 6 4 24 30 – 20 +10
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 16 7 2 7 23 23 – 21 +2
9 Hamburger SV 16 6 3 7 21 25 – 27 -2
10 FC Schalke 04 16 5 4 7 19 22 – 24 -2
11 1.FC Nürnberg 16 5 4 7 19 – 27 -8
12 Werder Bremen 16 5 4 7 19 22 – 33 -11
13 1.FC Kaiserslautern 16 5 3 8 18 25 – 26 -1
14 VfL Wolfsburg 16 4 6 18 22 – 23 -1
15 FC St. Pauli 16 5 2 9 17 14 – 26 -12
16 1.FC Köln 16 4 3 9 15 18 – 30 -12
17 VfB Stuttgart 16 3 3 10 12 29 – 30 -1
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 16 2 4 10 25 – 45 -20
445 445 0
Goals ø 3.09 Unbelievable a lead of 11 points that would be unbelievable even if Bayern had it. That is really unique to see. Add to that a goal difference of +30, and you’re really lost for words, and you can’t use the word “luck” to describe it. It’s just great what coach Klopp has achieved with his young squad. And every game that follows confirms it.
Hannover, Mainz and Freiburg on 3 to 5. Also amazing, but not nearly comparable with Dortmund’s performance, especially since the three mentioned have to refer to very lucky victories here or there. Maybe only Mainz didn’t, but it was precisely their flight of fancy that was initiated in the first place with the sensational 4:3 after 0:3 in Wolfsburg. And with that one can hardly speak of “forced”. It was a small miracle and that set everything in motion. By the way, the goal differences of Hannover and Freiburg are both 0, which provides a little confirmation for the assessment of partly luckily achieved victories, Mainz, on the other hand, with +9 belongs much more there.
Leverkusen, not to forget them, of course with a very good record, who, with the aforementioned 2-point-per-game average that usually makes a championship candidate, would otherwise probably be serious contenders in all years, nevertheless look slightly hopeless this year due to the huge gap.
Of course, you have to reckon with Bayern’s approach under all circumstances, especially since their performances were very often better than the results they achieved. Hoffenheim has the indicated potential, so can certainly still move up and displace Freiburg and Hannover in particular.
Frankfurt is playing a good season, but still has been unlucky in some games now (Freiburg with the 0:1 in the last minute, Schalke with 10:0 shots on goal in the 2nd half and a 0:0 at the end, now Cologne). The potential could even be greater.
HSV only on 9, with an already negative record. Of course the current crisis club, hopefully not starting coach discussions. Veh is doing a good job, a better series will follow again. In the last game they met an in-form Leverkusen, you can lose there.
Schalke climbed to 10 with the important win in Mainz. But the patience of those in charge was definitely noticeable there, as was the sovereignty of Mr. Magath, who is “spot-on” in all analyses. This patience is paying off, it seems. Especially since the Champions League revenues are secured and the performances there were really great.
Nuremberg got a point, but extremely fortunately. Of course, the 19 points are solid and a fair reflection of the performances shown, yet it could or should have been the fifth defeat and of course they only have to look backwards. However, a sense of achievement like the present one can provide a boost again.
Werder were at the mercy this time, but nevertheless showed that higher regions are not at all out of the question in terms of performance. They will probably be able to move up quite a bit.
Lautern rather received too little reward for their many first-class performances. Nevertheless, they will probably be satisfied as a promoted team with the 18 points, which leave all possibilities open.
Wolfsburg have drawn 5 times in a row, but their goal difference of -1 indicates that they were not too bad. However, in contrast to Werder, the performances here are not necessarily right yet.
St. Pauli are doing extremely well for a promoted team and one could even say that they could have even more points after their performances. Even so, of course, they will be halfway satisfied.
FC Köln with the important three points despite the early loss of Podolski. The victory was lucky, but they had not had luck on their side a few times before. Even if one could state that they have the potential to stay in the league, the situation in the standings is still precarious and they are one of the candidates.
VfB Stuttgart still have the excellent goal difference for a 17th-placed team, but a miserable points tally. Of course, we will have to wait for the change of coach to take effect. The situation is serious, certainly also because the players now have to deal with a different football teacher. Of course, there is still the potential to change everything for the better.
Borussia Mönchengladbach naturally has maximum worries. The start was good, shows that they are also competitive, but the low score and the repetitive flood of goals conceded naturally make every fan (dis)doubt. Can they still manage it? In any case, they are favourites – unfortunately for relegation.
3) The title question
For the sake of completeness, and out of dear old habit, the question of the title should not be left out, even if it lacks any explosive power. Nevertheless, one can simply watch with fascination how a chance approaches 100%, i.e. realisation, week after week. Can we still expect setbacks?
Note: In general, these figures are based on a specially developed computer programme that runs 5000 simulations of the Bundesliga under the given conditions. The time needed for 5000 runs: about 20 seconds.
The distribution of chances to win the title in 2011 after the 16th match day
Team Number of German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
Borussia Dortmund 4723 94.46% 1
Bayer Leverkusen 182 3.64% 27
FC Bayern Munich 70 1.40% 71.43
FSV Mainz 05 11 0.22% 454.55
Hannover 96 8 0.16% 625
SC Freiburg 2 0.04% 2500.00
TSG Hoffenheim 2 0.04% 2500.00
Hamburger SV 1 0.02% 5000
VfL Wolfsburg 1 0.02% 5000.00
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0.00%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
Werder Bremen 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
FC Schalke 04 0 0.00%
5000 100.00%
Dortmund is therefore at an impressive 94.46%, i.e. almost 95%, which means that it should only go wrong in about one case out of 20. Of course, this case can also occur this season…
Here are the changes in the odds compared to the previous week:
Chance changes compared to the previous week due to the results of matchday 16.
Team Changes absolute compared to the previous week Championship percentage
FC Bayern Munich -35 -0.70%
FSV Mainz 05 -33 -0.66%
Bayer Leverkusen -15 -0.30%
TSG Hoffenheim -11 -0.22%
Hannover 96 -5 -0.10%
Hamburger SV -3 -0.06%
Werder Bremen -2 -0.04%
Eintracht Frankfurt -1 -0.02%
FC Schalke 04 -1 -0.02%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
VfL Wolfsburg 1 0.02%
SC Freiburg 2 0.04%
Borussia Dortmund 103 2.06%
0 0.00%
To ensure that Dortmund is not in the lead once again, this week’s rankings were sorted according to negative development or maximum loss of chances. The fact that Bayern is in the lead here sounds surprising inasmuch as they won their own game clearly and emphatically with 3:0? Well, they had very few chances before that. Most of the slim chances are fuelled by the chance that Dortmund won’t win for once – for which Werder Bremen seemed a halfway suitable opponent. Since no points were forfeited on Dortmund’s part, the Bayern result becomes irrelevant at some point, especially since this one actually deserves to be called a “must-win”. In any case, the chance of Bayern winning was much higher than that of Dortmund winning. If both occur, it is immediately obvious that the one who had it harder (Dortmund) will gain chances.
Mainz lost, but as the second-placed team they still had the best chance, at least in terms of points. Leverkusen won, but has to fight the same phenomenon as Bayern: it only works if Dortmund loses points.
The win at Wolfsburg is pure coincidence, the one at Freiburg rather useless to comment on. A win can help.
4) Direct Champions League qualification via 2nd place
So that at least a different aspect comes in for this week, at least here are the prospects for the teams to make the direct qualification for the Champions League via the 2nd place.
The chances for the exact 2nd place
Team Number 2nd place 2nd place in percent Fair odds as inverse of probabilities
Bayer Leverkusen 2249 44.98% 2.22
FC Bayern Munich 1541 30.82% 3.24
FSV Mainz 05 338 6.76% 14.79
Borussia Dortmund 225 4.50% 22.22
Hannover 96 204 4.08% 24.51
TSG Hoffenheim 189 3.78% 26.46
SC Freiburg 92 1.84% 54.35
Hamburger SV 50 1.00% 100.00
FC Schalke 04 44 0.88% 113.64
VfL Wolfsburg 29 0.58% 172.41
Werder Bremen 28 0.56% 178.57
Eintracht Frankfurt 11 0.22% 454.55
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
5000 100.00%
Logically, the current runners-up are favourites to maintain this position, especially as Leverkusen are considered to have the potential. Bayern, however, still have a very decent chance of achieving this “minimum goal”. After all, with a gap of 6 points to a very good team, this pays tribute to their playing strength. The chances of the remaining teams are also distributed somewhat logically. Mainz has the most points, Dortmund almost always finishes first, but if not, then second, Hoffenheim has a healthy mix of playing strength and points output, while Freiburg has the points, but not the same ability (according to the computer, but this intuitively corresponds with observations described and made). HSV, Schalke, Wolfsburg and Werder are far behind but still have some chances.
5) The relegation question
When you sit over the same considerations week after week, it is inevitable that you occasionally take a slightly different, let’s call it higher, perspective on things. For today, this consists of rudimentary philosophical thoughts on the distribution of opportunities and their development. The question that actually arises is: What constitutes the perceived tension? Following on perhaps like this: By what does it change, how does it increase?
For it should now be succinctly stated here that the relegation question has not necessarily become more exciting as a result of the weekend results. If you then look at this sentence, the questions raised might become more understandable. Yes, why could it actually be that the tension has decreased? Because: one should always take into account that there is an inner drive that pushes one in the direction of security, certainty. You do look for answers to questions – sometimes completely different ones than those about the champion, the Champions League qualifier and the relegated team from the Bundesliga — which certainly drives you, but you are also very happy when you get them answered. This feeling then already resembles a certainty. “I know the answer to the question…” instead of “I have lots of questions”.
The answer to the master question already makes the problem clear in its approach. The movements are small, that is one point. The certainty that Dortmund will make it in the end is so great that the question simply doesn’t burn under the nails. So, this relates to relegation: The distribution of chances has become unfavourable in the sense of tension in that there have either been only minor developments or the certainty of at least one relegation has grown significantly. Let’s see if the philosophical thoughts contribute to interpreting the results – and possibly even provide a new aspect, actually offering a certain tension to the results under the aspect shown.
Here, then, are the added-up chances for the relegated teams. Once again, 16th place was counted as a relegation place at a ratio of one third, since the first division team is generally rated as the favourite over the second division team (at a ratio of 2/3 to 1/3). The other places, 17th and 18th, were calculated at 100%, well logically.
The danger of relegation measured in disdainful percentages
Team Direct relegation (17th or 18th place) Relegation by relegation Total
Borussia Mönchengladbach 79.54% 3.37% 82.91%
FC St. Pauli 39.66% 6.90% 46.56%
1.FC Köln 31.82% 6.52% 38.34%
1.FC Nuremberg 15.64% 4.82% 20.46%
VfB Stuttgart 15.24% 4.19% 19.43%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 12.72% 4.43% 17.15%
Eintracht Frankfurt 1.50% 0.85% 2.35%
VfL Wolfsburg 1.38% 0.66% 2.04%
Werder Bremen 0.86% 0.66% 1.52%
FC Schalke 04 0.70% 0.32% 1.02%
Hamburger SV 0.58% 0.33% 0.91%
SC Freiburg 0.28% 0.13% 0.41%
TSG Hoffenheim 0.06% 0.09% 0.15%
FSV Mainz 05 0.02% 0.03% 0.05%
Hannover 96 0.00% 0.03% 0.03%
FC Bayern Munich 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Bayer Leverkusen 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Borussia Dortmund 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
200.00% 33.33% 233.33%
As you can see, Gladbach, now firmly anchored at the bottom of the table, are very clear favourites to be relegated. Of course, there is still hope, which cannot only be expressed in percentages, but which at the same time can be nourished by partially shown performances. Of course, even if he could, coach Frontzeck will avoid looking at such a table or at least withhold it from his players so as not to discourage them. Particularly as those involved have a considerable influence on the distribution of chances or are guaranteed to imagine that they do. The motto: You just have to win your games, then it will work out. Of course, you have a little bit of control, but a large part of it is still dependent on variables that cannot be controlled, especially since part of objectivity is to anticipate and include the opponent’s influence, as it should be. So: Even if Gladbach meet Kaiserslautern at some point in the second half of the season and declare that the “game of the year”, as it represents the last or only chance to stay in the league, then Lautern’s abilities stand in the way of the plan, and these only have to be objectively in the right order of magnitude, which then justifies the distribution of chances shown at the end.
Whether the one very large chance of relegation can be responsible for a regression in the sense of tension is something everyone should judge for themselves.
Here is the
Change in chances from the 15th to the 16th matchday
Team Change in Chances
1.FC Cologne -14.64%
1.FC Nuremberg -3.89%
FC Schalke 04 -1.13%
1.FC Kaiserslautern -0.84%
SC Freiburg -0.67%
Hannover 96 -0.23%
TSG Hoffenheim -0.11%
Bayer Leverkusen 0.00%
Borussia Dortmund 0.00%
FC Bayern Munich 0.00%
FSV Mainz 05 0.03%
VfL Wolfsburg 0.17%
Werder Bremen 0.33%
Hamburger SV 0.39%
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.56%
VfB Stuttgart 5.75%
FC St. Pauli 6.30%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 7.98%
0.00%
This picture is quite clear and unambiguous, nevertheless worth describing. The big winner of the day is 1. FC Köln, whose threat of relegation was reduced by 14.64% with a 1:0 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt. Logical this development and also the gigantic jump: the chance of relegation was very high, so there was also a lot to gain. A victory in the relegation battle is also worth more than one for the championship, since logically teams at the bottom score less overall.
Further winners are hard to pick and, as you can see, Nürnberg’s one little point, albeit scored away from home, so more valuable, was enough to take second place in this ranking. Schalke won, but was no longer in such danger – according to the computer.
The loser is quite obvious. Gladbach was in the greatest danger before and clearly lost (in terms of the result). One understands that immediately. But the fact that St. Pauli, despite an expected defeat (different from Gladbach’s, of course, in percentage terms it’s only numbers, but that comes a little later in the text), recorded almost the same loss as Gladbach, is perhaps striking. Of course, it can be interpreted quite simply: since Cologne won, and that gave a mighty boost, the other competitors (the losers) passed on their chances of staying in the class to Cologne quite evenly.
Stuttgart were not yet in so much danger – from a computer’s point of view, as they could still put their playing strength on the line — but are gradually slipping right into it with the defeat. Also unfavourable for them: the Cologne victory.
6) The points expectations and the deviations
As usual, we continue to look for the order of chaos in the universe, but for today we will limit ourselves to those for an eventual order of the table. It is clear that all the experts are a little surprised and if, once again, one of them had undertaken a jungle tour for the experiment and, after three months without any information, looked at the table today, they would probably declare it a joke or an impossibility, but we have witnessed this reality via the weekly development.
The measure of disarray had been established quite early on as the average deviation of teams from their points expectations, which is one way to go anyway. So this week, as always, first the deviations in the overview:
Point expectations and deviations from them sorted by size of deviation, from positive to negative.
Team Name Points expected Points scored Deviation Deviation absolute
Borussia Dortmund 27.76 43 15.24 15.24
Hannover 96 18.10 31 12.90 12.90
FSV Mainz 05 21.62 30 8.38 8.38
SC Freiburg 19.13 27 7.87 7.87
Bayer Leverkusen 26.41 32 5.59 5.59
Eintracht Frankfurt 20.03 23 2.97 2.97
1.FC Nuremberg 16.74 19 2.26 2.26
FC St. Pauli 16.53 17 0.47 0.47
TSG Hoffenheim 23.95 24 0.05 0.05
1.FC Kaiserslautern 18.50 18 -0.50 0.50
1.FC Köln 17.24 15 -2.24 2.24
Hamburger SV 24.66 21 -3.66 3.66
FC Schalke 04 24.38 19 -5.38 5.38
FC Bayern Munich 31.56 26 -5.56 5.56
Werder Bremen 24.80 19 -5.80 5.80
VfL Wolfsburg 24.58 18 -6.58 6.58
Borussia Mönchengladbach 17.37 10 -7.37 7.37
VfB Stuttgart 24.47 12 -12.47 12.47
6.18 105.29
ø Deviation 5.85Note: The value in the sum of the deviations of +6.18 is due to the fact that, from the computer’s point of view, there were too few draws and therefore the total point expectation is exceeded by one point with each missing draw. Six draws are missing, so to speak.
In any case, this question was not one: Who is number 1? From number 2 onwards, however, one can already interpret or think beforehand. Hanover, yes, that makes sense. For their assumed potential, they surprised by far the most (second). Mainz is just as insightful, as are Freiburg and Leverkusen, who follow.
From the other perspective, one immediately understands that Stuttgart “took the cake”. Almost 12.5 points too few. That is shocking, even more so for every Stuttgart fan. On the other hand, a look at the Eruo League table with its sovereign 1st place shows that the potential should still be there. Whether the second change of coach is now suitable to gradually eat up this huge points deficit?
Gladbach in front, but already in a dimension where they could at least advance into “normal” regions with a small series. Wolfsburg, Werder, Bayern and Schalke remain clearly in the bottom half, which is of course easy to understand. HSV is preparing to move up into this group, where the small deficit of only 3.66 points is a) surprising and b) easily correctable. However, computer expectations are of course not always congruent with fan expectations….
The average value of 5.85 points is still higher than the 5.73, but this has already been explained as halfway normal, as the number of games played has a slight influence (but to exclude this would also not be entirely correct and not as vivid). Nevertheless, one can only confirm: there were, also intuitively speaking, too many results that were nevertheless capable of surprising one. And the computer also noticed that…
Just for fun, look again at the values from abroad:
For comparison, here are briefly the figures from abroad that were not pre-calculated:
Average point deviations in Europe’s top leagues
Spain 2.91
France 2.95
Italy 3.42
England 3.51
2nd Bundesliga 4.62
Germany 5.85
Logically, the table has been sorted by order this time. A little joke. All right, then. So the highest order is now Spain. So there must have been a few surprises in France at the weekend. Italy and England follow close behind, but you have to take into account that all these leagues play with 20-player fields and therefore the potential for deviations is even greater.
The two German leagues – the 2nd division included – are nicely behaved with some distance at the bottom of the boredom league, which therefore means that, at least from the fan’s point of view, things are always exciting and nothing is really predictable. An intuition that can be backed up with figures and that even continues into the 2nd division. Somehow it radiates a bit of optimism, just like the German national team in South Africa or Barak Obama’s campaign slogan: “Yes, we can! Anyone can beat anyone, we can even make up for a 3-0 deficit, so let’s start with the first goal and then maybe we’ll add a few more. “What’s the name of the opponent? Bavaria? Okay, well, let’s get them warmed up!”
The international translation for this optimism could be “naivety”. “Oh, you’re not even satisfied with a 2:0 or 3:0 to win? Just wait, if we lead 1:0, we’ll have you in the bag. There’s nothing left to burn.” However, even this view is not sufficiently supported by weak international performances. German football is alive, it’s as simple as that. And there’s plenty of entertainment to go with it.
7) Goal expectations and their deviations
The table should not be missing, but this time it is only given in the again simplified form with the summation of the total deviation.
The goal deviations after the 16th matchday in total
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded expected Goals conceded Total deviation
Borussia Dortmund 27.82 39 18.72 9 20.89
FSV Mainz 05 22.62 26 23.51 17 9.89
TSG Hoffenheim 24.92 30 21.77 20 6.85
Hannover 96 20.06 24 26.47 24 6.41
Eintracht Frankfurt 21.26 23 24.36 21 5.10
SC Freiburg 21.17 23 25.86 23 4.70
1.FC Kaiserslautern 20.45 25 26.05 26 4.60
Bayer Leverkusen 27.49 33 20.56 23 3.07
1.FC Nuremberg 18.61 19 27.20 27 0.58
FC St. Pauli 18.24 14 26.89 26 -3.34
1.FC Köln 19.60 18 27.58 30 -4.01
VfB Stuttgart 26.27 29 22.44 30 -4.83
VfL Wolfsburg 25.56 22 21.60 23 -4.96
FC Schalke 04 24.94 22 21.07 24 -5.87
FC Bayern Munich 29.69 26 14.75 17 -5.94
Hamburger SV 25.02 25 20.91 27 -6.11
Borussia Mönchengl 21.22 25 29.49 45 -11.73
Werder Bremen 26.75 22 22.43 33 -15.32
0.00
Yes, interpretations: Dortmund on 1. How come? Couldn’t the computer have predicted that? 39 goals “to the goods” and only 9 conceded. Unprecedented. So we should rather talk about the places.
Mainz have a respectable number of points, but, compared to Hannover and Freiburg, also the corresponding goal difference. Hoffenheim, with +10 points, is also pretty much in the lead, although the draw against Nuremberg was a real giveaway and a win could have put them even higher (remember: no one was as close to victory as Hoffenheim against Dortmund, when the equaliser came from an unjustified free kick in injury time). Hannover, of course, are also up front, but only because they were seen as relatively weak by the computer.
At the back, not unexpectedly, they meet Werder Bremen, who made a name for themselves with their conspicuously poor goal ratio (the goals conceded). But -15.32 goals is steep, of course, always remember, it’s more about points and Werder was expected – by many experts too – to be quite high up. Gladbach can’t surprise us anyway, but it’s rather surprising that HSV are already in the league with -6.11, as their points tally, as commented, wasn’t that tragic. For them, too, it’s the goals conceded, 4 of which they conceded last time.
Bayern and Schalke are ahead of them, sure, but also with bridgeable differences. Stuttgart in this table not so bad, as their difference is only a -1, which of course also speaks for their potential.
With Leverkusen’s ranking, for example, you can see what the computer thought they could do. They only just surpassed it, but with that they already took 2nd place in the “real” ranking.
The average goal deviations from the top leagues are also listed once this week, again without calculating them (which is even omitted for Germany; however, the interested reader has the right and possibility to add up the absolute amounts of the deviations and then divide by 18 to confirm the value).
Average goal deviations in Europe’s top leagues
Spain 3.21
Italy 4.02
France 4.13
England 5.04
2nd Bundesliga 5.8
Germany 6.9
Again confirming the picture: in Germany you have to reckon with a lot, if not everything, Both leagues solidly in the exciting places. Spain confirms the first place even more by a minimal deviation. Look also at how reliably and sovereignly already 1 and 2 are again – and have been for almost years – lonely in their circles at the top. Certainly, even the author cannot help feeling a certain enthusiasm for the football celebrated by Barca and currently also by Real, on the contrary. The view also remains that Barca is the best team in Europe (as the recent 5-0 win over Real made clear). However, for now (and this has not been the case in all years, so it is progress) the moments of tension in the championship question are limited to “Barca or Real?”.
England, after all, with a 5.04 goal difference per team, is in a range that rivals Germany.
8) The playing strength rankings
Goal expectations
Team For Against Quotient For/Again Shift1 Borussia Dortmund 1.93 0.96 2.01 +0
2 FC Bayern Munich 1.83 0.99 1.85 +0
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1.84 1.29 1.43 +0
4 FC Schalke 04 1.58 1.26 1.25 +1
5 VfL Wolfsburg 1.54 1.26 1.22 +1
6 TSG Hoffenheim 1.62 1.35 1.20 -2
7 Werder Bremen 1.63 1.4 1.16 +0
8 Hamburger SV 1.61 1.47 1.10 +0
9 VfB Stuttgart 1.61 1.55 1.04 +0
10 FSV Mainz 05 1.35 1.42 0.95 +0
11 SC Freiburg 1.35 1.49 0.91 +1
12 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.3 1.51 0.86 -1
13 Hannover 96 1.34 1.58 0.85 +0
14 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.28 1.69 0.76 +0
15 1.FC Köln 1.21 1.69 0.72 +0
16 1.FC Nürnberg 1.15 1.72 0.67 +0
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.33 2.15 0.62 +0
18 FC St. Pauli 0.99 1.71 0.58 +0
26.49 26.49
Goals ø expected
2.94 So you can see that Dortmund and Bayern extended their lead right at the front with their clear victories (Dortmund from 1.95 to 2.01, Bayern from 1.79 to 1.85). Leverkusen also added to their lead (1.38 to 1.43) by winning in Hamburg. Surprisingly, Hoffenheim dropped 2 places due to the draw against Nuremberg. One of them even in favour of Wolfsburg, who just managed to come away with a more or less bearable result. Freiburg and Frankfurt swapped places, otherwise everything remained the same as far as the order was concerned.
The computer, as you can see, reacts somewhat conservatively, but this has proven to be correct over the years. The doubts that have arisen for this season could evaporate later, or actually herald a change in trend towards faster (necessary) reactions. The course of the season will show that.
Otherwise, however, the tame way of reacting is even statistically verifiable – and this proof has been provided, so to speak. To explain this in detail would go beyond the scope of this article.
One thing is certain: the computer-produced estimates for the coming games (and the past ones, too, of course) are always competitive on the betting market. As a rule, the assessments are confirmed, that is point 1, but if there is a contradiction, there is a good reason and a good reason to get involved in a bet, that is point 2.
Overall, it is still noticeable that the goal average has corrected itself further downwards – also in the expectation. Last week at 2.96, now at 2.94, exactly as before the season. The trend is downwards – which could also be a coincidence, of course — the computer is reacting. Very reasonable nonetheless.
9) The mathematical review of the results of matchday 16
Goal expectation
Home Away Result DeviationHannover Stuttgart 1.70 1.46 2 1 0.30 -0.46
HSV Leverkusen 1.47 1.46 2 4 0.53 2.54
FC Bayern St. Pauli 2.39 0.58 3 0 0.61 -0.58
Kaiserslautern Wolfsburg 1.48 1.44 0 0 -1.48 -1.44
Hoffenheim Nuremberg 2.13 0.95 1 1 -1.13 0.05
FC Cologne Frankfurt 1.42 1.44 1 0 -0.42 -1.44
Dortmund Bremen 2.07 0.95 2 0 -0.07 -0.95
Freiburg Gladbach 2.13 1.32 3 0 0.87 -1.32
Mainz Schalke 04 1.38 1.27 0 1 -1.38 -0.27
16.16 10.85 14 7 -2.16 -3.85
Goal total: 21
Expected goal total Expected goal average: Goal average scored
27.02 3.00 2.333 As is immediately apparent, there were 6 goals too few this time. The correction of the goal average. Could it/should it have been foreseen? Or was it “just” coincidence? Who knows? However, it was “announced” a little here in so far as the weather conditions and the points battles were used as arguments.
Apart from that, the home teams once again scored a little less, so that the home advantage had a little more effect – a picture that is also typical for this phase of the season. At the same time, both Lautern and Hoffenheim even did NOT get their wins, which would have been deserved. On the other hand, both Cologne and, in my opinion, Hannover won somewhat fortunately.
The biggest “surprises” – which in this statistic are the biggest summed up deviations – are the games HSV – Leverkusen, with 0.53 + 2.54 = 3.07 goals and Kaiserslautern against Wolfsburg with 1.48 + 1.44 = 2.92 goals. There were no real outlier results this week (also due to a lack of goals). What is striking here is that the 0-goal game Lautern – Wolfsburg is in 2nd place, which means something like “in Germany, goals are actually always scored, so that a 0:0 is already a surprise”.
Here are the statistics of the results based on the events that occurred.
The probabilities for the outcomes of the matches of Matchday 16
Pairing 1 X 2
Hannover Stuttgart 43.33% 23.68% 32.99%
HSV Leverkusen 37.71% 24.99% 37.30%
FC Bayern St. Pauli 77.76% 15.13% 7.11%
Kaiserslautern Wolfsburg 38.43% 25.03% 36.55%
Hoffenheim Nuremberg 64.28% 19.94% 15.77%
FC Cologne Frankfurt 37.05% 25.33% 37.62%
Dortmund Bremen 63.29% 20.44% 16.27%
Freiburg Gladbach 55.70% 20.91% 23.39%
Mainz Schalke 04 39.29% 26.41% 34.30%
4.57 2.02 2.41
This is the preview of the last week. Here is an overview of the events that took place:
The events that occurred on matchday 16
Pairing 1 X 2
Hannover Stuttgart 43.33
HSV Leverkusen 37.30%
FC Bayern St. Pauli 77.76%
Kaiserslautern Wolfsburg 25.03%
Hoffenheim Nuremberg 19.94%
FC Cologne Frankfurt 37.05%
Dortmund Bremen 63.29
Freiburg Gladbach 55.70%
Mainz Schalke 04 34.30%
5 2 2
As you can see, the number of expected home wins was minimally exceeded, while the number of away wins was undercut. The draws “matched” exactly this time.
The sum of all probabilities that occurred is a
3.937, which could possibly gain some significance in later weeks, namely if it is put into the comparison. Here it only means so much, naively expressed, by dividing this number again by the number of 9 games, and looking at the 3.937 / 9 = 43.74% thus obtained, that there was a certain predictability. If everything was just a dice game, i.e. all results were purely random and there were no differences in playing strength, then this number would have to be a 33.33%, since each event would have a chance of 1/3 = 33.33%, and to that extent this would also be fulfilled.
So you can predict something – according to the partial findings of this match day – and the computer has proved to be reasonably equipped in this art. There are always minor coincidences, and yet there is a certain order in the chaos. The underdog events that have arrived are, of all things, the two draws and – even more remarkable about this – they were both acknowledged to have been fortunate for one of the parties (the away team in each case), so would have been more likely to have been a favourites event as well (this only mentioned because it is possible that, as is often enough the case, the course of the game could also justify the results).
10) Preview of Matchday 17
In order for next week’s results to be evaluated in terms of these figures again, the preview of the coming matchday must of course be provided. Here are the numbers, first the…
Goal expectations for the Matchday 17 matches:
Goal expectation
Home Away
Gladbach HSV 1.53 1.90
Bremen Kaiserslautern 2.13 1.05
Wolfsburg Hoffenheim 1.53 1.32
Frankfurt Dortmund 0.92 1.85
Nuremberg Hanover 1.37 1.35
Schalke 04 FC Cologne 2.09 0.92
St. Pauli Mainz 1.12 1.42
Leverkusen Freiburg 2.04 1.08
Stuttgart FC Bayern 1.26 1.61
13.98 12.51
Expected goal total Expected goal average:
26.48 2.94The computer shows a little insight: it actually assumes “only” 2.94 goals for this matchday. The average over the season is still over 3 (3.09) goals per game, but the trend has been downwards – which is reflected here.
The home teams are, as usual, favourites in the aggregate, but since Bayern AND Dortmund play away it turns out to be quite close.
The implementation of these figures according to computer logic (of course, devised by a comparatively, presumably, bright head because of sunlight) in the following overview:
The probabilities for the match outcomes 1, X, 2 for the 17th matchday
Pairing 1 X 2
Gladbach HSV 31.15% 22.33% 46.53% Bremen Kaiserslautern
Bremen Kaiserslautern 62.01% 20.26% 17.73%
Wolfsburg Hoffenheim 41.94% 25.11% 32.94%
Frankfurt Dortmund 18.27% 22.53% 59.20%
Nuremberg Hanover 37.38% 25.97% 36.65%
Schalke 04 FC Cologne 64.24% 20.17% 15.59%
St. Pauli Mainz 29.52% 26.60% 43.88%
Leverkusen Freiburg 59.48% 21.11% 19.40%
Stuttgart FC Bayern 29.92% 24.72% 45.36%
3.74 2.09 3.17
The fact that HSV is still quite the clear favourite of the two crisis clubs is somehow understandable. Although Gladbach needs points so badly that one can certainly imagine them succeeding. Of course, this also applies to HSV, but in such cases the home team is often still somewhat favoured by it. The spectators also know: Now – or never.
Bremen, of course, still have to prove that they are favourites. We’ve seen Lautern so strong that we can trust them. Still, it’s a very important game for Werder to start the second half of the season with some optimism. 62% is a lot – and certainly close to realistic – but it’s still a long way from being a real old “bank” ….
Wolfsburg has the edge over Hoffenheim in terms of expectations. Yes, you can accept it. Should Hoffenheim be the favourite? No. Nevertheless, at some point Wolfsburg’s performance will have to live up to all the praise it has received.
Dortmund, with the level of play they have achieved in the meantime – but which is definitely reflected on the pitch – are favourites almost everywhere (with the exception, of course, of Bayern). And quite clearly so. You have to let that pass, but surely one or two non-Dortmunders will not only wish, but also imagine, that this time they won’t win. Compared to Werder, the chance of victory is also somewhat smaller.
Nuremberg slightly ahead against Hannover. That’s realistic in any case, since Hannover has the good results in a row and Nuremberg the bad ones. However, the point scored in Hoffenheim, albeit a lucky one, was perhaps the decisive factor that boosts self-confidence again – and sets the stage for a win.
Schalke is on an upward trend and is even more of a favourite at home against Cologne than Werder and Dortmund (according to the computer). This is countered on the one hand by the geographical proximity, which could attract quite a few Cologne fans to the stadium and thus provide support, and on the other hand by the upward trend also at Cologne. Nevertheless, the figure looks good. After all, at 64% it is anything but “certain” that Schalke will win.
St. Pauli against Mainz is not so easy to assess at first glance. Of course, the interpretation is always possible. Mainz simply have so many points on their account that they simply become the favourites. According to the standings and also according to the performances they have shown, one should accept that. Nevertheless, one thing is certain: St. Pauli can be trusted with something here. They play at home, the fans will be there in full force, and they don’t feel so much worse than the opponent that they have to cower in their own half. They will try, going forward and — it can succeed.
Leverkusen vs Freiburg is of course again a clear favourite, comparable to the other three such pairings. For Freiburg (and the slightly better chances) speaks just the table situation. On the other hand, Leverkusen are simply in a good mood, and they certainly fancy a home win. Whether it could be easier than the others remains to be seen.
Bayern in Stuttgart is always a hot duel. But given the special situation of the two clubs, it is particularly explosive, especially as Labbadia is making his coaching debut there. Sure, you can expect many things, but that Bayern are favourites is indisputable. The 45% indicate that it will certainly not be easy. But who wouldn’t put it past them?
See you next week. Excitement is guaranteed everywhere.
