This week, too, a review of the 15th match day is to be carried out, again examining the chance developments for certain events. However, since last week a preview in the sense of probabilities as well as the goal expectations for the matches were provided, these can be compared on the basis of the results. As usual, however, first an intuitive review of the results.
1) Review of the matches of matchday 15
First, an overview of the results:
FC St. Pauli – 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1:0 (0:0)
Borussia Mönchengladbach – Hannover 96 1:2 (1:0)
VfB Stuttgart – TSG Hoffenheim 1:1 (1:1)
VfL Wolfsburg – Werder Bremen 0:0
Eintracht Frankfurt – FSV Mainz 05 2:1 (1:1)
SC Freiburg – Hamburger SV 1:0 (1:0)
FC Schalke 04 – FC Bayern Munich 2:0 (0:0)
Bayer Leverkusen – 1.FC Köln 3:2 (1:1)
- FC Nürnberg – Borussia Dortmund 0:2 (0:1)
For today, it deserves mention that the writer of these lines has to rely on the summaries for almost all matches – as well as the coaches’ or players’ voices heard afterwards — , because apart from the Schalke vs Bayern match, no other match was seen live.
Nevertheless, here is this attempt:
FC St. Pauli – 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1:0 (0:0)
A result you can well imagine. St.Pauli had also delivered some good performances without scoring. A phenomenon that affected the Lauterians in some games before, but not the most recent one, in which they suddenly had great results. On the one hand, the result can be called “deserved” – despite a rather mediocre game, which was also decided by an own goal –, on the other hand, a very typical result, which also makes the situation in the relegation question more exciting, since Lautern recently achieved a considerable gain in chances of staying in the league at the expense of St. Pauli. This should now correct itself again. In any case, a typical result.
Borussia Mönchengladbach – Hannover 96 1:2 (1:0)
About Hannover you now definitely have to say that they are now in league with Fortuna over the entire match. This game was also already leaning towards Borussioa Mönchengladbach when first the sending off (certainly justified; however, in the replay of the scene you can see how vicious actually the defender’s intervening against Bobadilla is, as he simply clutches his foot) and then the double strike. Of course – a couple of pictures were seen just in that phase – Hannover pressed for the equaliser and you can see coach Frontzeck’s nervousness on the edge of the boot, who as a coach has a particularly good feel for that. However, one certainly does not expect a complete reversal of the trend now. Gladbach, at any rate, are sitting at the other end of the luck scale.
However, the class shown by the increased self-confidence, which Hannover then also offered in terms of play, is by no means to be denied. Nevertheless, everything fits, especially the result, which is always partly luck.
VfB Stuttgart – TSG Hoffenheim 1:1 (1:1)
In a game like this you can see a bit of that difference, even if it still depends on coincidences. But: In contrast to Hannover, Stuttgart is under enormous pressure, purely due to the standings. Even if their playful class shines through again and again, they lack a bit of penetrating power. After the sending-off, they were unable to bring the numerically inferior Hoffenheim team to its knees. Nevertheless, it would have been deserved, especially because of the second half. The aluminium goals in particular bear witness to this. The only curious thing is that it is always confirmed: When you’re in the back, it doesn’t work that way (Gladbach, Stuttgart), but when you’re on top, it does.
VfL Wolfsburg – Werder Bremen 0:0
The widely held view that this was a weak game cannot be supported here at all. Should one want to deduce it from the lack of goals, it should be remembered that the reporter’s jargon (nonsensically) only ever speaks of mistakes if goals are scored. In this respect, there would be a chance that there were few mistakes. Nor should the fact that two penalties were not converted be taken as an indication of a lack of quality. After all, the fact that a penalty kick is converted is not even a 75% chance. Assuming it were, however, the probability of a double miss would still be 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16, and thus 6%, in purely mathematical terms, and thus by no means an “impossible event”.
If you look at Torsten Frings’ penalty, you can hardly speak of “badly kicked”. The goalkeeper has the corner, he slips through anyway, but it bounces off the crossbar. From the shooter’s point of view, that’s just bad luck. A penalty kick over the goal, on the other hand (Dzeko), can be described as such. However, it should be borne in mind that such an accident can happen when trying to place it accurately, so the argument “missing the goal from 11 metres is embarrassing” is pure nonsense. The shooter has no intention whatsoever to get the direction of the goal (which could be done playfully, blindfolded), but the intention is to sink the ball into it.
Otherwise, it is worth mentioning that two of the crisis clubs met. These are thankless duels. Only one can break free (at most!), but the other slides in even deeper. In this respect – also in view of the defensive weaknesses so often attributed to them – a somewhat more cautious approach would be all too understandable. Nevertheless, there were enough chances on both sides, and even a few brilliant combinations (Diego, Arnautovic). Even at the end there were scoring chances, which is not a matter of course under the circumstances given.
Eintracht Frankfurt – FSV Mainz 05 2:1 (1:1)
The two high-flyers against each other. Of course in a kind of derby, but one of absolute high spirits. Both far above expectation, you can just play fresh, pious, cheerful, free football forward and advertise for the sport and in your own cause. That’s what happened in this game. Eintracht has really had a great season so far with several strong performances and highlights. Patrick Ochs in particular stands out time and again.
The decision for the penalty is of course the hotly debated one, but should not be included here. Only so much that there were very often no penalty kicks for far worse offences, which then speaks per se against the correctness of the decision due to the comparability. More importantly, however, the victory is simply deserved on balance and no one was seriously harmed.
SC Freiburg – Hamburger SV 1:0 (1:0)
This duel was once again a typical one of the type “table correction possible”. The originally stronger team (HSV) meets a team higher in the table. However, the correction simply does not succeed. The underdogs have probably gathered so much self-confidence that they resist these imposed regularities. Freiburg was the better team in this game and deserved to win.
Whether one should draw conclusions from this for a longer period of time remains a little obscure, but the phenomena seem to be repeating themselves, especially in the last few years. The differences are so small that you can easily compensate for them with a little courage. The fact that the team spirit is constantly improved by successes and diminished by defeats – for which the media bear a share of the responsibility, whether consciously or not, willingly or not is irrelevant – can, on the other hand, paralyse the steps. In any case, there remain very good coaching insights, in these oft-quoted versions: Football is the business of the day. Today counts and the truth is on the pitch.
FC Schalke 04 – FC Bayern Munich 2:0 (0:0)
It’s amazing that there was another duel between two problem children. Again, it is the case that only one can extricate itself from the greatest crisis. The players and the people in charge definitely know the importance of such a match. It is prepared with the necessary meticulousness and commitment – also from the spectators. It is also an extremely important moment due to the season. Can tempers be calmed, can we gradually get back on the road to success? Is it possible to achieve the actual goals of the season or do we have to say goodbye to all our dreams?
All the players have certainly been at such a crossroads more than once. Nevertheless, this match had a very unusual explosiveness. The Bavarians, however, showed themselves to be absolute masters in the art of easily controlling their nerves. It was actually a very typical performance in the “mir san mir” version. The self-confidence radiated, the perceived superiority, which was nevertheless more than palpable on the pitch, seemed to indicate very clearly: Only one can win this game.
Such a display of superiority can be seen in very few games in the entire Bundesliga. There was no sign of insecurity or hecticness, or even of (imputed) panic. The ball was calmly pushed from man to man, with the brilliant ideas – Schweinsteiger, Müller – in between, which inevitably led to goal chances. Bayern demonstrated their exceptional position in the Bundesliga in all respects. And: without wanting to exaggerate the enthusiasm, just a week ago the computer had Bayern in front in the playing strength rankings. Such a performance – with all due respect to Dortmund – confirms this judgement.
There is just one shortcoming. Clearly this was that the ball did not want to cross the opponent’s goal line. It was a question of time. However, Schalke has the “best goalkeeper in the world” (as was often said after the match) and he has the ability to drive Bayern to despair. Nevertheless, it is a millimetre here or a thousandth of a second there that makes the difference. It could have happened, but it didn’t.
Insofar as one deals with probabilities – as is done in this series here at all levels – then such a sequence will always remain possible. Each of, say, six excellent goal-scoring opportunities (and you can confidently add a couple of nascent ones that didn’t come to fruition) has a conversion percentage. This depends, of course, on the quality of the chance created – with chance also playing a role in this or that clearance or even rebound in the development — as well as on the class of the shooter, but ultimately, of course, also on that of the opposing goalkeeper. The radiance on Neuer’s face would not fade until the next day and was proof of how one simply had to feel: He was the match winner. He was beaming with happiness. Maybe also because he knew he had it that day?
But let’s get back to the chances: every goal-scoring chance has its exploitation percentage. Even if Bayern, with their own class, which is countered by Neuer’s, were to create 50%, or even 60%, of every single chance – which would be close to the size of the chance of a penalty kick, and that is actually the greatest possible chance — then there would be a calculable probability that all chances would be missed. This was calculated from 40% (the chance of not scoring) to the power of 6, since the probabilities of independent events have to be multiplied by each other. 40% = 0.4, the whole to the power of 6, gives a probability of (surprisingly, only because of the 0.4) 0.4%. Unlikely, but possible.
If each individual chance were 50%, the chance of missing it six times already increases to 1.56%. If, however, one takes the realistic average of about 30% of the chances taken according to the kicker statistics, which are published every week, as a basis, then the chance of consecutively missing six scoring chances of this magnitude already rises to a quite tangible 11.8%.
The bottom line: this Bayern team has nothing but a results crisis. The performance is right. However, at least one fundamental question automatically follows on from a lack of success: To what extent do poor results negatively influence performance? It has been shown time and again that at some point the focus is on finding someone to blame – certainly to a large extent again pushed by the media – and at that moment the self-destruction can begin. If we remain calm – also in the environment, which reacts in exactly the same way as the media – then we will certainly be successful again. The team has outstanding quality and there should be sympathy rather than finger-pointing. They were unlucky, and not just in this game. While someone else (Dortmund) was lucky, which is something we would gladly accept, as long as we don’t let it get the better of us.
Bayer Leverkusen – 1.FC Köln 3:2 (1:1)
As you can read in the match report, it was a rather lucky victory for Leverkusen and Cologne obviously confirmed their rising form. Especially Podolski could be seen (in the summary) in several scenes in the condition we are used to seeing him in. It was actually outrageous that he was disallowed the demonstrably correct 2:2. If one follows other allegations, one would have to state here quite clearly a case of doubt obviously applied contrary to the rules, namely that of the interpretation “in doubt against the attacker” (instead of the other way round).
1 FC Nuremberg – Borussia Dortmund 0:2 (0:1)
If you follow the match report carefully, you’ll notice that luck is a must and that it’s always with us at the moment. Nuremberg had a few good chances, even if Dortmund was already leading at the time and even a 1:1 would have offered enough opportunity to decide the game in their favour. Great, and there should be no doubt about that, in any case everything that coach Klopp put together with his young ensemble.
Overall, there were fewer goals, which of course reduces the goal average a little and thus normalises it. As previously stated, this is to be expected due to the seasonal phases, but also due to the weather.
2) The current table in analysis
First of all, here is the table:
Table after the 15th matchday 2010/2011
| Sp | S | U | N | Pkt | T | GT | Diff | |||
| 1 | Borussia Dortmund | 15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 37 | – | 9 | +28 |
| 2 | FSV Mainz 05 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 30 | 26 | – | 16 | +10 |
| 3 | Bayer Leverkusen | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 29 | – | 21 | +8 |
| 4 | Hannover 96 | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 28 | 22 | – | 23 | -1 |
| 5 | SC Freiburg | 15 | 8 | 0 | 7 | 24 | 20 | – | 23 | -3 |
| 6 | TSG Hoffenheim | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 29 | – | 19 | +10 |
| 7 | FC Bayern München | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 23 | 23 | – | 17 | +6 |
| 8 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 23 | – | 20 | +3 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 23 | – | 23 | +0 |
| 10 | Werder Bremen | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 22 | – | 31 | -9 |
| 11 | 1.FC Nürnberg | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 18 | – | 26 | -8 |
| 12 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 25 | – | 26 | -1 |
| 13 | VfL Wolfsburg | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 22 | – | 23 | -1 |
| 14 | FC St. Pauli | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 14 | – | 23 | -9 |
| 15 | FC Schalke 04 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 21 | – | 24 | -3 |
| 16 | VfB Stuttgart | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 28 | – | 28 | +0 |
| 17 | 1.FC Köln | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 17 | – | 30 | -13 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 10 | 25 | – | 42 | -17 |
| 424 | 424 | 0 | ||||||||
| Tore ø | 3.1 |
It is difficult to speak of a perceived “order” here, but especially not of increasing order. The problem children remain far behind, of course mainly due to the fact that there were two direct pairings. But Stuttgart also failed to win at home. Rather, another candidate of bursting hopes has arrived: Hamburger SV is already lagging behind its own expectations by far more than it would like. And the high-flyers just don’t want to stop their flight. Rather, it seems, one should get used to the table picture with Hannover, Mainz and Freiburg at the top? Well, it certainly makes for suspense.
3) The title question
As boring as it has become by now: at least the simulation should not be missing this time either. Here are the corresponding results:
The chances of winning the title in 2011 after the 14th match day
| Mannschaft | Anzahl Deutscher Meister in 5000 Simulationen | Meisterschaften in Prozent | Faire Quoten als Kehrwert der Wahrscheinlichkeiten |
| Borussia Dortmund | 4620 | 92.40% | 1.08 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 197 | 3.94% | 25 |
| FC Bayern München | 105 | 2.10% | 48 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 44 | 0.88% | 114 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 13 | 0.26% | 385 |
| Hannover 96 | 13 | 0.26% | 385 |
| Hamburger SV | 4 | 0.08% | 1250 |
| Werder Bremen | 2 | 0.04% | 2500 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 0.02% | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 0.02% | 5000 |
| SC Freiburg | 0 | 0.00% | |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 0 | 0.00% | |
| VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0.00% | |
| 1.FC Nürnberg | 0 | 0.00% | |
| 1.FC Köln | 0 | 0.00% | |
| 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 0 | 0.00% | |
| FC St. Pauli | 0 | 0.00% | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 0.00% | |
| 5000 | 100.00% |
What should one expect after another Dortmund victory, now 10 points ahead and defeats of the main rivals? Over 90% are the odds already. And the subsequent discussions about Bayern throwing in the towel (and its unthinkability) cannot provide any excitement at the moment either.
Here
The change in the odds compared to the previous week
| Mannschaft | Anzahl Deutscher Meister in 5000 Simulationen | Meisterschaften in Prozent |
| Borussia Dortmund | 248 | 4.96% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 37 | 0.74% |
| Hannover 96 | 7 | 0.14% |
| FC Schalke 04 | 1 | 0.02% |
| Werder Bremen | 1 | 0.02% |
| 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 0 | 0.00% |
| 1.FC Köln | 0 | 0.00% |
| 1.FC Nürnberg | 0 | 0.00% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0 | 0.00% |
| FC St. Pauli | 0 | 0.00% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 0 | 0.00% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | -1 | -0.02% |
| SC Freiburg | -2 | -0.04% |
| VfL Wolfsburg | -3 | -0.06% |
| Hamburger SV | -7 | -0.14% |
| TSG Hoffenheim | -22 | -0.44% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | -51 | -1.02% |
| FC Bayern München | -208 | -4.16% |
| 0 | 0.00% |
Well, as you can see: Here, too, the usual picture. It is easy to see that Borussia Dortmund owes its increased title chances to Bayern’s defeat and has almost completely “helped itself” to them. It is equally understandable that a Mainz defeat would put a massive damper on their meagre hopes. Only victories could help Hoffenheim at this stage, too – and one failed to materialise.
4) The developments in relegation danger
There is, of course, some movement on this issue and it is likely to provide suspense for some time to come. Nevertheless, this matchday was rather unproductive in terms of accumulation: both Gladbach and Cologne lost their games, even if both unhappily. Nevertheless, here are these statistics. For this week, however, the awkward relegation calculation is spared (just mention that the first division team that reaches this place is generally considered 2/3:1/3 favourite over the second division team for the calculation of chances):
Teams’ chances of relegation from the Bundesliga
| Mannschaft | Direkter Abstieg (Platz 17 oder 18) | Abstieg per Relegation | Insgesamt |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 70.96% | 3.97% | 74.93% |
| 1.FC Köln | 47.06% | 5.92% | 52.98% |
| FC St. Pauli | 33.44% | 6.82% | 40.26% |
| 1.FC Nürnberg | 19.14% | 5.21% | 24.35% |
| 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 13.84% | 4.15% | 17.99% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 10.06% | 3.61% | 13.67% |
| FC Schalke 04 | 1.34% | 0.81% | 2.15% |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1.16% | 0.71% | 1.87% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.16% | 0.63% | 1.79% |
| Werder Bremen | 0.62% | 0.57% | 1.19% |
| SC Freiburg | 0.60% | 0.49% | 1.09% |
| Hamburger SV | 0.32% | 0.20% | 0.52% |
| Hannover 96 | 0.08% | 0.18% | 0.26% |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 0.20% | 0.06% | 0.26% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 0.02% | 0.01% | 0.03% |
| FC Bayern München | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 200.00% | 33.33% | 233.33% |
The favourites in this category are reasonably clear. Cologne and Gladbach, for whom the defeats are anything but good. St. Pauli has of course reduced its chances by winning, while Nuremberg and Lautern are now “getting involved” again quite seriously. Stuttgart also remains a candidate with 10%, the rest hardly deserve a mention.
More exciting is the development of the chances compared to the previous week:
Chance development from matchday 14 to matchday 15.
| Mannschaft | Chancenveränderung |
| FC St. Pauli | -15.34% |
| FC Schalke 04 | -3.64% |
| SC Freiburg | -2.16% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | -1.79% |
| Hannover 96 | -0.64% |
| Werder Bremen | -0.43% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | -0.01% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 0.00% |
| FC Bayern München | 0.00% |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 0.02% |
| Hamburger SV | 0.09% |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 0.09% |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 0.22% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 0.66% |
| 1.FC Nürnberg | 3.58% |
| 1.FC Köln | 5.05% |
| 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 5.83% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8.48% |
| 0.00% |
The picture here is quite vivid. St. Pauli are in the lead, having reduced their chances of relegation by 15.34%. This is logical, since they managed to win against a rival (which makes them even more so). For Kaiserslautern, last week’s leader in the category thanks to their 5:0 over Schalke, is almost the big loser. This questionable title remains firmly in Gladbach’s hands, however, because a home defeat against a (supposedly) beatable team is hard to take. Otherwise, the shifts are not exactly gigantic. Schalke has still freed itself quite well -a win against Bayern valuable, especially because a strong opponent –, Nuremberg and Stuttgart reduced the chances of staying in the class.
5) The points expectations in the deviation
Let’s see if anything interesting has happened here. After all, the measure of the disorder of the table was extremely high at 5.3 points average deviation per team, which gives mathematical expression to the feeling of a season full of surprises. After all, the international comparison also showed that Spain, England and Italy were all below 3.0 a few matchdays ago, so we have proof of that here, too: The Bundesliga is going haywire, much to the delight of the fans. So the envy of foreign countries can even be measured.
The deviations from the points expectations
(but sorted according to points scored)
| Team Name | Punkterwartung | Punkte erzielt | Abweichung | Abweichung absolut |
| Borussia Dortmund | 25.66 | 40 | 14.34 | 14.34 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 20.17 | 30 | 9.83 | 9.83 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 25.04 | 29 | 3.96 | 3.96 |
| Hannover 96 | 16.57 | 28 | 11.43 | 11.43 |
| SC Freiburg | 17.25 | 24 | 6.75 | 6.75 |
| FC Bayern München | 29.08 | 23 | -6.08 | 6.08 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 21.83 | 23 | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 18.64 | 23 | 4.36 | 4.36 |
| Hamburger SV | 23.27 | 21 | -2.27 | 2.27 |
| Werder Bremen | 24.10 | 19 | -5.10 | 5.10 |
| 1.FC Nürnberg | 16.06 | 18 | 1.94 | 1.94 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 23.24 | 17 | -6.24 | 6.24 |
| FC St. Pauli | 16.16 | 17 | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 17.10 | 17 | -0.10 | 0.10 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 23.09 | 16 | -7.09 | 7.09 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 23.24 | 12 | -11.24 | 11.24 |
| 1.FC Köln | 15.88 | 12 | -3.88 | 3.88 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 16.45 | 10 | -6.45 | 6.45 |
| 6.16 | 103.07 | |||
| ø Abweichung | 5.73 |
Sorting today according to the points scored (i.e. according to the actual table) should perhaps open up a different perspective. It is immediately obvious that the teams in the top half of the table tend to have exceeded their expectations (exception: Bayern), while those at the bottom are usually below. However, you can also see, for example, that St. Pauli or Lautern, as promoted teams, are more or less on target despite their lower ranking. And although Cologne, for example, is in a relegation place, they are almost only one good win away from their expectations.
At the bottom of the category, however, remains Stuttgart, with -11.24, behind them already Schalke, Gladbach, Wolfsburg and Bayern, but quite far away with 6 to 7 points difference, i.e. in the order of two games they should have won instead of losing.
The disarray has also grown again to 5.73 points, but it is well understood that this matchday also provided some surprises and thus did not live up to expectations. Of course, as we like to repeat, to the delight of the spectators. You have to reckon with everything and that’s just fun. Even if you have your own team and they are not on target at the moment, you can still trust them with everything.
For comparison, here are the figures from abroad that have not been calculated in advance:
Average point deviations in Europe’s top leagues
| Deutschland | 5.73 |
| Italien | 2.94 |
| Spanien | 2.80 |
| England | 3.00 |
| Frankreich | 2.50 |
As you can see, no other league is anywhere near the Germans. So the Bundesliga is exciting in any case, but whether this surprise potential “anyone can beat anyone” now stands for quality can repeatedly only be shown by comparison on the international stage. The performances there have been halfway satisfactory so far this season. At least there is nothing to suggest that there is an extended list of deficiencies, for example in terms of tactical understanding (keyword: result management) or defensive weaknesses, which could also be noticeable in the higher number of goals scored in Germany. France is included for this time and leads the boredom table.
6) Goal expectations in the divergence
This statistic is also not to be missed this week. However, for today it is explicitly broken down by goals scored and goals conceded.
Goal deviations Broken down by goals scored
| Team Name | Torerwartung | Tore erzielt | Abweichung | Abweichung absolut |
| Borussia Dortmund | 25.75 | 37 | 11.25 | 11.25 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 22.79 | 29 | 6.21 | 6.21 |
| 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 18.97 | 25 | 6.03 | 6.03 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 19.89 | 25 | 5.11 | 5.11 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 21.25 | 26 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Hannover 96 | 18.36 | 22 | 3.64 | 3.64 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 24.81 | 28 | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 19.82 | 23 | 3.18 | 3.18 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 26.03 | 29 | 2.97 | 2.97 |
| SC Freiburg | 19.04 | 20 | 0.96 | 0.96 |
| 1.FC Nürnberg | 17.66 | 18 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Hamburger SV | 23.55 | 23 | -0.55 | 0.55 |
| 1.FC Köln | 18.17 | 17 | -1.17 | 1.17 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 24.12 | 22 | -2.12 | 2.12 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 23.67 | 21 | -2.67 | 2.67 |
| FC St. Pauli | 17.66 | 14 | -3.66 | 3.66 |
| Werder Bremen | 25.80 | 22 | -3.80 | 3.80 |
| FC Bayern München | 27.30 | 23 | -4.30 | 4.30 |
| 29.35 | 65.91 | |||
| ø Abweichung | 3.66 |
Croesus is, of course, Borussia Dortmund in all areas, the amazement at which has long since disappeared. In addition, the gap to the chasing pack is considerable. However, the very good rankings of Kaiserslautern and Mönchengladbach are certainly surprising, since they are far behind in the real table. Now, logically, there are also goals conceded, but nevertheless, also from memory, these teams can be more than satisfied with their attacking performances. If the shoe pinches, it’s at the back.
The backs are less surprisingly a couple of the usual problem children. However, if you consider that Bayern would only have needed to convert four of the crystal-clear chances (and this even seemed possible in the last game alone), then you also sense that the above argument on the subject of Bayern is not so wrong at all. Stretched over several games, one more goal here, one there, and a totally messed-up season could easily be turned into a very successful one (even if first place could be out of reach).
Of course, one must not forget that all teams scored too many goals (a total of 29.35 from column 3), which thus caused the goal average to skyrocket unexpectedly. This makes this statistic a bit unbalanced. Nevertheless, just last weekend the goal yield was low and thus caused a slight correction.
An even more perplexing picture emerges when looking at the goals conceded:
Goal deviations broken down by goals conceded.
| Team Name | Gegentorerwartung | Gegentore | Abweichung | Abweichung absolut | |
| 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 27.36 | 42 | 14.64 | 14.64 |
| 2 | Werder Bremen | 20.36 | 31 | 10.64 | 10.64 |
| 3 | VfB Stuttgart | 20.74 | 28 | 7.26 | 7.26 |
| 4 | FC Schalke 04 | 19.69 | 24 | 4.31 | 4.31 |
| 5 | 1.FC Köln | 26.15 | 30 | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| 6 | Hamburger SV | 19.45 | 23 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| 7 | VfL Wolfsburg | 20.12 | 23 | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| 8 | FC Bayern München | 14.17 | 17 | 2.83 | 2.83 |
| 9 | Bayer Leverkusen | 19.09 | 21 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| 10 | 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 24.62 | 26 | 1.38 | 1.38 |
| 11 | 1.FC Nürnberg | 25.07 | 26 | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| 12 | FC St. Pauli | 24.50 | 23 | -1.50 | 1.50 |
| 13 | SC Freiburg | 24.54 | 23 | -1.54 | 1.54 |
| 14 | TSG Hoffenheim | 20.82 | 19 | -1.82 | 1.82 |
| 15 | Hannover 96 | 25.01 | 23 | -2.01 | 2.01 |
| 16 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 22.94 | 20 | -2.94 | 2.94 |
| 17 | FSV Mainz 05 | 22.25 | 16 | -6.25 | 6.25 |
| 18 | Borussia Dortmund | 17.77 | 9 | -8.77 | 8.77 |
| 29.35 | 79.01 | ||||
| ø Abweichung | 4.39 |
On the one hand, the amazement was also on the author’s side, since the deviation gives a different total in absolute terms than in the goals scored. However, the summation of absolute amounts makes it possible, as is only suggested here, to find this out by logical thinking. The sum in column 3, on the other hand, must match – and does.
Here, too, the sorting results in the logical consequence that Gladbach must be in front. In terms of goals scored, 4th place, in the table 18th place in terms of points, you simply have to be behind (or: ahead) in terms of goals conceded. But also otherwise one remembers the “historic flood of conceded goals”. Werder’s dams also burst time and again. Stuttgart and Schalke are always among the “usual suspects” anyway.
The bottom of the table doesn’t need any exaggerated commentary either. The sorting was maliciously done according to positive values so that Dortmund would finally not be on 1. The effect is quite clear: now they are last. It is all too understandable that Mainz is hot on their heels in the hunt for the goal-avoidance crown. For Bayern, too (always the focus of attention), a glance at their record is enough to show that avoiding the two Schalke goals would almost have “normalised” their season. So a Bavarian 4:0 in the (now no longer) Glückaufkampfbahn (which is quite possible in terms of goalscoring chances), and everything would already be in order.
7) The current league table
Just for the sake of completeness (or for those who enjoy following the development compared to last week), here is the current playing strength ranking list, which forms the basis of all probability calculations for the computer.
Bundesliga 1st Division after the 15th matchday:
| Torerwartungen | |||
| Team | Für | Gegen | Quotient Für/Gegen |
| Borussia Dortmund | 1.93 | 0.99 | 1.95 |
| FC Bayern München | 1.81 | 1.01 | 1.79 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1.76 | 1.27 | 1.38 |
| TSG Hoffenheim | 1.66 | 1.34 | 1.24 |
| FC Schalke 04 | 1.59 | 1.30 | 1.22 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | 1.58 | 1.31 | 1.21 |
| Werder Bremen | 1.66 | 1.40 | 1.18 |
| Hamburger SV | 1.59 | 1.38 | 1.15 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.62 | 1.54 | 1.06 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 1.40 | 1.42 | 0.98 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.35 | 1.52 | 0.89 |
| SC Freiburg | 1.32 | 1.54 | 0.86 |
| Hannover 96 | 1.33 | 1.60 | 0.83 |
| 1.FC Kaiserslautern | 1.33 | 1.74 | 0.76 |
| 1.FC Köln | 1.22 | 1.74 | 0.70 |
| 1.FC Nürnberg | 1.16 | 1.76 | 0.66 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.38 | 2.12 | 0.65 |
| FC St. Pauli | 1.01 | 1.70 | 0.59 |
| 26.69 | 26.69 |
It was clear, given Bayern’s razor-thin lead last week, that a single result towards Dortmund would tip this immediately. This has happened on both sides. So Dortmund on top, also in this category. At the back, St. Pauli’s important victory over Lautern wasn’t enough to take the red lantern away. Nevertheless, they are of course “on it”, not only in terms of points. A few good results and they can overtake one or the other.
It is also understandable that after the smaller series of good results (because even the 2:3 in Leverkusen had a minimal positive effect) compared to the series of defeats of Nuremberg, the computer lets these teams swap places. Stuttgart are panting behind at the top, but still remain ahead of Mainz. Whether this is realistic, also bearing in mind what was discussed much further above with regard to growing self-confidence, future results will show. The fact is: the computer has just as much difficulty as humans in predicting anything at all, if you want to put it that way. In any case, it uses this ranking as a basis for the following calculations of the games.
8) The mathematical review of the results of the 15th matchday
In the last issue, the results were predicted in the goal expectations. Here now is an evaluation of the same.
Evaluation of the matches of matchday 15 based on goal expectations
| Torerwartung | |||||||
| Heim | Auswärts | Ergebnis | Abweichung | ||||
| FC St. Pauli | FC Kaiserslautern | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1 | 0 | -0.38 | -1.39 |
| Bor. Mönchengladb. | Hannover 96 | 1.57 | 1.55 | 1 | 2 | -0.57 | 0.45 |
| VfB Stuttgart | TSG Hoffenheim | 1.66 | 1.55 | 1 | 1 | -0.66 | -0.55 |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Werder Bremen | 1.81 | 1.47 | 0 | 0 | -1.81 | -1.47 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | FSV Mainz 05 | 1.38 | 1.29 | 2 | 1 | 0.62 | -0.29 |
| SC Freiburg | Hamburger SV | 1.48 | 1.49 | 1 | 0 | -0.48 | -1.49 |
| FC Schalke 04 | Bayern München | 1.19 | 1.45 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | -1.45 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 0.96 | 3 | 2 | 0.96 | 1.04 |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | Borussia Dortmund | 0.99 | 2.00 | 0 | 2 | -0.99 | 0.00 |
| 13.51 | 13.15 | 11 | 8 | -2.51 | -5.15 | ||
| Erwartete Torsumme | Erwarteter Torschnitt: | Erzielter Toreschnitt | |||||
| 26.66 | 2.96 | 2.111 |
In principle, there were no really big surprises. There are also no exorbitant deviations, logically, since no particularly high results occurred. The expected goal average did not materialise by a long way, which lends credence to the assertion made earlier that there is no need to react excessively quickly to the flood of goals. In the many evenly matched matches, the scores were correspondingly close.
It was also noticeable that the away teams were clearly shortchanged this time. Of course, one remembers that the pairing Schalke – Bayern of all places found the “wrong” winner and could easily have brought about the correction. It is even more striking that in the match in which the computer saw the most goals, none were scored. Should we say “typical”?
9) A look back at the matches of Matchday 15 in terms of probabilities
Since a preview in terms of probabilities was also created last week, it should also be compared here. Therefore, once again in the overview these values:
| Paarung | 1 | X | 2 | |
| FC St. Pauli | 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 36.95% | 25.81% | 37.25% |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Hannover 96 | 38.26% | 24.10% | 37.64% |
| VfB Stuttgart | TSG Hoffenheim | 40.57% | 23.66% | 35.77% |
| VfL Wolfsburg | Werder Bremen | 45.63% | 23.02% | 31.35% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | FSV Mainz 05 | 39.00% | 26.26% | 34.73% |
| SC Freiburg | Hamburger SV | 37.52% | 24.82% | 37.66% |
| FC Schalke 04 | FC Bayern München | 30.83% | 26.20% | 42.97% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 1. FC Köln | 62.26% | 20.81% | 16.93% |
| 1. FC Nürnberg | Borussia Dortmund | 17.99% | 21.32% | 60.69% |
| 3.49 | 2.16 | 3.35 |
St. Pauli had the minimally less likely result compared to the Lauter win, but of course nothing really surprising happened with it. The game was even, the draw was the underdog event and did not happen.
In the same way, Gladbach were also razor-thin favourites and had to bite the dust. Nevertheless, the unlikely draw was avoided.
In Stuttgart against Hoffenheim, however, the computer saw Stuttgart in front. According to the course of the game, this assessment was correct, but this may have had something to do with the sending-off. Nevertheless, it remained a draw.
Wolfsburg against Werder was also a draw, and a goalless one at that, which did not fit at all. The attempt of explanation above, regarding the worries both might have, and therefore initially wanted to ensure stability, However, there were chances in the game until the end, so that one should still assume a coincidence and not exaggerate with the attempts of explanation.
Frankfurt against Mainz saw the “right” winner. But, as already explained, there was indeed a slightly questionable penalty in play.
Freiburg v HSV saw the slightly less likely occur for the third time in the almost completely even games. No need to worry about that.
Yes, Schalke against Bayern has been discussed at length. But the impression persists: the almost 43% on Bayern winning was rather understated.
Leverkusen against Cologne was by far the most likely outcome, but it was both hard-fought and dependent on a referee’s decision, and overall not deserved.
Dortmund should be kept quiet for the time being. 60% is still far from a “sure win”, but it has happened.
10) Preview of matchday 16
Goal expectations for the matchday 16 pairings
| Torerwartung | |||
| Heim | Auswärts | ||
| Hannover | Stuttgart | 1.70 | 1.46 |
| HSV | Leverkusen | 1.47 | 1.46 |
| FC Bayern | St. Pauli | 2.39 | 0.58 |
| Kaiserslautern | Wolfsburg | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| Hoffenheim | Nürnberg | 2.13 | 0.95 |
| FC Köln | Frankfurt | 1.42 | 1.44 |
| Dortmund | Bremen | 2.07 | 0.95 |
| Freiburg | Gladbach | 2.13 | 1.32 |
| Mainz | Schalke 04 | 1.38 | 1.27 |
| 16.16 | 10.85 | ||
| Erwartete Torsumme | Erwarteter Torschnitt: | ||
| 27.02 | 3.00 |
You can see that despite the low goal total last week, it still results in a higher expectation for the goal total this week. As perplexing as it sounds, such an effect is possible due to the specific pairings in which certain match-ups can provide higher expectation totals.
Hannover is seen as the favourite, How could they be otherwise? Even if somehow the feeling tells you that Stuttgart will get something there. HSV – Leverkusen is totally even, which makes sense in view of HSV’s recent crisis. But perhaps intuitively one would still give them slight advantages.
Bayern are firm favourites, which nobody doubts. Lautern against Wolfsburg is almost even, which is not immediately convincing given Wolfsburg’s weakness away from home and their recent weaker games, but the potential is clearly there, as well as a good time to play it out.
It is also easy to see that there is no favourite in Cologne against Frankfurt. Cologne behind, but with stronger performances lately. Frankfurt is on the rise, the match is even, and because of Cologne’s home advantage, it’s a good match.
Dortmund will go into the game against Werder as clear favourites, that’s just the way it has to be. Nevertheless, you have the idea that it won’t be quite as easy as it looks on this paper here.
Freiburg must also be considered quite clear favourites. Nevertheless, Gladbach’s high goal value (1.32) shows that you can definitely expect one or two goals from their side and thus possibly a surprise.
Mainz against Schalke should be balanced on the whole, even if you understand that you can’t completely ignore the table situation. But Schalke will already go into the game with boosted self-confidence and one has the feeling (one has been deceived often enough) that there could be a turnaround here.
For the sake of completeness, here are the calculated odds for the match outcomes.
The probabilities for the outcomes of the matches of matchday 16
| Paarung | 1 | X | 2 | |
| Hannover | Stuttgart | 43.33% | 23.68% | 32.99% |
| HSV | Leverkusen | 37.71% | 24.99% | 37.30% |
| FC Bayern | St. Pauli | 77.76% | 15.13% | 7.11% |
| Kaiserslautern | Wolfsburg | 38.43% | 25.03% | 36.55% |
| Hoffenheim | Nürnberg | 64.28% | 19.94% | 15.77% |
| FC Köln | Frankfurt | 37.05% | 25.33% | 37.62% |
| Dortmund | Bremen | 63.29% | 20.44% | 16.27% |
| Freiburg | Gladbach | 55.70% | 20.91% | 23.39% |
| Mainz | Schalke 04 | 39.29% | 26.41% | 34.30% |
| 4.57 | 2.02 | 2.41 |
This time, as you can see, the home teams have a clear advantage – already from home. Of course, that’s because the heaviest weights get to play at home. But Hoffenheim also makes its contribution with a whopping 64%.
In any case, we can remain curious. Because, as already indicated above, many pairings offer the chance of a turnaround towards “normality”. Whether this would be desirable or simply unavoidable, if it should happen at all, is just one of the unanswered questions that only the future can clarify.
