Even after the conclusion of the 14th match day, the Bundesliga should be illuminated a little from here and from there. What did the match day bring? Did the surprises outweigh the surprises again, or did the standings just a little bit match up to previous expectations? How did the individual matches go, also in the sense of the recently introduced figure with the average change in tendency per match? Of course, the question should be discussed further: How are the chances in the title race developing? Or, since that currently looks more like yawning boredom, who are the relegation favourites? How are the unpleasant chances – sometimes more aptly described as “relegation danger” – developing for the teams in danger?
As usual, the point deviations are examined, but this week also the goal deviations, this time additionally in comparison with other countries.
This week, however, we will actually include a preview of the coming matchday. However, this will be somewhat unusual, both in terms of numbers and otherwise. As a basis for this, the current ranking list will be presented, on the basis of which the computer currently produces its forecasts.
1) Review of the results of matchday 14
FSV Mainz 05 – 1. FC Nürnberg 3:0 (1:0)
FC Bayern Munich – Eintracht Frankfurt 4:1 (1:1)
- FC Kaiserslautern – FC Schalke 04 5:0 (2:0)
Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart 4:2 (4:1)
TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 (1:2)
Hannover 96 – SC Freiburg 3:0 (1:0)
Borussia Dortmund – Borussia Mönchengladbach 4:1 (1:1)
Werder Bremen – FC St. Pauli 3:0 (2:0) - FC Cologne – VfL Wolfsburg 1:1 (1:0)
The games now in the individual analysis
FSV Mainz 05 – 1. FC Nürnberg 3:0 (1:0)
A convincing, no, once again inspiring performance by Mainz. Both teams have “overperformed” so far (i.e. performed better than expected). Such a match character returns and clearly favours the home team. They play in front of their own enthusiastic and enthusiastic fans, while the away team occasionally has the tendency to sit back a little and think: “Oh, we’ve got enough points as it is. And soon we’ll have another home game.” That’s exactly what happened in the game. Even if one shouldn’t go too far with such interpretations, it fits quite well in this game. In any case, there was great football and beautiful goals to be seen. And a high-flyer who was only supposed to be talked into the crisis and who was able to stabilise 2nd place in the table with it.
FC Bayern Munich – Eintracht Frankfurt 4:1 (1:1)
This is also a very typical constellation. The heavy favourites, who showed no real crisis on the pitch (this was only reflected in unsatisfactory results; the famous “results crisis”, which was very aptly introduced as a term by real experts, among whom the coaches are to be counted, but not by media representatives) and meet another high-flyer. The ideal chance to set the record straight. A so-called “must-win”. The Bavarians did this in an absolutely convincing manner, despite the one defensive error that led directly to the counter (and equalising) goal.
1st FC Kaiserslautern – FC Schalke 04 5:0 (2:0)
If you like, the sensation of the matchday. It is not about the winner, which one can imagine in view of the home advantage and really good performances as well as the standings, but about the amount. However, Kaiserslautern, similar to Bayern, also just had a results crisis. Their performances in the previous matches were indistinguishable from those of their rivals who ultimately scored points, such as Freiburg, Frankfurt or Hannover.
Analogous to other pairings, however, one could most certainly have expected a stabilisation of Schalke’s performances. As I said, the defeat itself is not the problem. It’s the amount. However, if you look at the perfection of the Lauter players’ finishing in this match, then it is put into perspective. At times there was simply nothing they could do. And Schalke still lacked that little bit of luck in one situation, which is what you need to make it count.
Nevertheless, this is an example for the whole season: nothing seems predictable. You have to expect everything. And even if it’s “just” the occasional landslide victory against the real favourites…
Hamburger SV – VfB Stuttgart 4:2 (4:1)
If you look at the performance over these 90 minutes, then you can possibly speak very cautiously of a slightly lucky victory for Hamburg. However, the fact that Stuttgart played with one man less almost all the time was very much part of the character of this match. Certainly, HSV went into a bit of a slow gear after taking a 4:1 lead despite excellent and well-balanced chances on both sides and did not imagine any more resistance. Nevertheless, it was there and there were plenty of chances for Stuttgart before that. So they deserve a lot of respect for trying until the end, because they too could have simply resigned themselves to defeat, given the apparent hopelessness.
All in all, a great advert for Bundesliga football. Great attacking football from the first to the last minute and 6 goals accordingly. Simply great! Stuttgart will certainly go their way after such a performance. With Schalker, who were also clearly defeated in the previous match, this prediction is slightly more difficult.
TSG Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen 2:2 (1:2)
This game was also a great advertisement for football. A 0:2 lead doesn’t mean too much this season. You shake for a moment and immediately afterwards ask again how to get to the opponent’s goal. Let’s see, if we want to equalise, it’s best to score a goal first. The rest might fall into place. That’s what happened here. TSG certainly deserved it with a spirited attacking performance.
Hannover 96 – SC Freiburg 3:0 (1:0)
Again the same character as the Mainz game — and the same result. Two teams that are far more than satisfied with the season and the points they have scored. But one of them is committed to the home crowd. Winning is sometimes easy.
Borussia Dortmund – Borussia Mönchengladbach 4:1 (1:1)
This match really had a very special character. On the one hand, the match between first and last is always explosive in some way and, viewed over many leagues over many years, the outcome is by no means as clear-cut as the standings suggest, while on the other hand, of course, it is a duel of tradition and neighbourliness. As the statistics show, both teams have won the same number of times in the Bundesliga.
The course of events was also special. The Dortmund side had the upper hand, and the goal-scoring opportunities were increasing – but it was the away team that scored the goal. Now this is by no means unusual. What is unusual, however, is the persuasiveness with which the home team kept on trying – and approached the goal with an unparalleled inevitability – and finally forced a fourth goal.
Certainly as deserved as convincing as – unfortunately – boring. At some point, the non-Dortmund part of the league would like to see a stumble, wouldn’t it?
Werder Bremen – FC St. Pauli 3:0 (2:0)
Another ideal game to straighten things out. The result sounds very clear, but the match report opens up a few possibilities for deviation here and there – two aluminium goals mentioned first. Nevertheless, two things can be pointed out: St. Pauli has been affected by this in a negative way several times now and the way Hugo Almeida, who was later sent off, confidently played out his outstanding class in all three almost identical situations. He remained completely cool, looked for the free spot in the goal, targeted it — and hit it. Simply outstanding and at this point one may very well use the word construct “individual class” to declare this result deserved.
1 FC Cologne – VfL Wolfsburg 1:1 (1:0)
The away win clearly gave 1. FC Köln the self-confidence to approach this match in a forward gear and from the position of favourites. This was optimistic football, spiced with enough playful elements to produce a mix that promised victory. When they finally made it 1-0 after a great free-kick hammer and Novakovic tap-in, they also seemed stable enough to carry the result over time. Wolfsburg could only very rarely demonstrate their class and still managed a very flattering equaliser, as they did at St. Pauli. It is true for all teams: The strength of the game means nothing as long as you can’t play to it.
All in all, it was another eventful match day with many – 36, that is 4 per game – great goals, but the very dramatic developments were not particularly represented because of some clear victories. The standings may also have corrected a little, as the favourites were in many of the matches.
2) Analysis of the table situation
The current table after the 14th matchday
Sp S U N Pkt T GT Diff
1 Borussia Dortmund 14 12 1 37 35 – 9 +26
2 FSV Mainz 05 14 10 0 4 30 25 – 14 +11
3 Bayer Leverkusen 14 7 5 2 26 26 – 19 +7
4 Hannover 96 14 8 1 5 25 20 – 22 -2
5 FC Bayern Munich 14 6 5 3 23 23 – 15 +8
6 TSG Hoffenheim 14 6 4 4 22 28 – 18 +10
7 Hamburger SV 14 6 3 5 21 23 – 22 +1
8 SC Freiburg 14 7 0 7 21 19 – 23 -4
9 Eintracht Frankfurt 14 6 2 6 20 21 – 19 +2
10 1.FC Nürnberg 14 5 3 6 18 18 – 24 -6
11 Werder Bremen 14 5 3 6 18 22 – 31 -9
12 1.FC Kaiserslautern 14 5 2 7 17 25 – 25 +0
13 VfL Wolfsburg 14 4 4 6 16 22 – 23 -1
14 FC St. Pauli 14 4 2 8 14 13 – 23 -10
15 FC Schalke 04 14 3 4 7 13 19 – 24 -5
16 1.FC Köln 14 3 3 8 12 15 – 27 -12
17 VfB Stuttgart 14 3 2 9 11 27 – 27 +0
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 14 2 4 8 10 24 – 40 -16
405 405
Goals ø 3.21
Well, the corrections have only partially been reflected visually. Bayern are up from 8 to 5, after all. Werder from 12 to 11. The remaining problem children remain where they were, Stuttgart one down, Wolfsburg even two. Schalke kept their place despite 0:5. Well, so you can’t really see anything in the table. It’s more like this: you get used to seeing it.
3) The chances of winning the 2011 title
Here are the chances of winning the German championship, where in any case no dramatic developments are to be expected from the results.
The chances for winning the title in 2011 after the 14th matchday
Team Number German champions in 5000 simulations Championships in percent Fair odds as reciprocal of probabilities
Borussia Dortmund 4372 87.44% 1.14
FC Bayern Munich 313 6.26% 16
Bayer Leverkusen 160 3.20% 31
FSV Mainz 05 95 1.90% 53
TSG Hoffenheim 35 0.70% 143
Hamburger SV 11 0.22% 455
Hannover 96 6 0.12% 833
VfL Wolfsburg 3 0.06% 1667
SC Freiburg 2 0.04% 2500
Eintracht Frankfurt 2 0.04% 2500
Werder Bremen 1 0.02% 5000
FC Schalke 04 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart 0 0.00%
1.FC Nuremberg 0 0.00%
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
5000 100.00%
Here are the 100% completely awarded, sorted by their amount. Bayern back on 2, of course, because Leverkusen gave away two points (or: didn’t win them). After Hoffenheim at the latest, speculation on the title becomes very vague. All in all, not such an exciting table, as Dortmund “eats up” almost all chances.
Here is a comparison with the previous week:
The change in the odds compared to the previous week
Change absolute in percent
Borussia Dortmund 89 1.78%
FC Bayern Munich 43 0.86%
FSV Mainz 05 35 0.70%
Hannover 96 5 0.10%
FC St. Pauli 0 0.00%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0.00%
1.FC Cologne 0 0.00%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 0 0.00%
VfB Stuttgart -1 -0.02%
1.FC Nuremberg -1 -0.02%
Eintracht Frankfurt -2 -0.04%
VfL Wolfsburg -4 -0.08%
Werder Bremen -5 -0.10%
SC Freiburg -5 -0.10%
Hamburger SV -5 -0.10%
FC Schalke 04 -5 -0.10%
TSG Hoffenheim -24 -0.48%
Bayer Leverkusen -120 -2.40%
0 0.00%
Well, as you can see, more Dortmund wins increase their chances. Despite the supposedly easy task at home, percentages are added. That’s because the small remaining percentages that stand against winning the title result from defeats – even unlikely ones. If none occurs – a win instead — the distance shortened by the game played speaks in their favour.
Bayern and also Mainz have a small gain to make. This may seem illogical in view of the previous argument, but it becomes understandable when one looks at the results of the other competitors. All three winners recruit their chance gain from the draw between Hoffenheim and Leverkusen. Here we see once again how devastating draws can be, with no one taking the full number of points and only a total of 2 instead of 3 points being distributed.
4) The developments of the relegation risk
Here again are the results of the simulation for achieving the relegation place. The resulting number (also the percentage) for relegation in the last column is calculated as 1/3 of the chance to reach the relegation place. This is based on the knowledge that the first-division team will be in the favourite position compared to the second-division team. Since one has to add the achievement of this unpleasant event via relegation to calculate the ultimate chance of relegation, one has to assume a speculative value. Of course, one could also simply assume 50%, one wins one, the other wins the other. The assumed 33.33% are determined intuitively and of course still depend on the concrete pairing (if, for example, Hertha – St. Pauli has to play, then Hertha could well have the advantage).
So here are the simulation results:
The chances of the teams to “reach” the relegation place
(5000 runs)
Team 16th place in 5000 attempts 16th place in percent% the fair odds as the reciprocal of the probability 1/3 of the chance for the relegation place leads to relegation resulting number of relegations on 5000
Borussia Mönchengladbach 713 14.26% 7.01 4.75% 238
1.FC Köln 901 18.02% 5.55 6.01% 300
FC St. Pauli 915 18.30% 5.46 6.10% 305
1.FC Kaiserslautern 453 9.06% 11.04 3.02% 151
1.FC Nuremberg 716 14.32% 6.98 4.77% 239
VfB Stuttgart 449 8.98% 11.14 2.99% 150
Werder Bremen 81 1.62% 61.73 0.54% 27
Hannover 96 54 1.08% 92.59 0.36% 18
Eintracht Frankfurt 159 3.18% 31.45 1.06% 53
FC Schalke 04 254 5.08% 19.69 1.69% 85
SC Freiburg 157 3.14% 31.85 1.05% 52
VfL Wolfsburg 109 2.18% 45.87 0.73% 36
Hamburger SV 26 0.52% 192.31 0.17% 9
TSG Hoffenheim 11 0.22% 454.55 0.07% 4
FSV Mainz 05 1 0.02% 5000.00 0.01% 0
Bayer Leverkusen 1 0.02% 5000.00 0.01% 0
FC Bayern Munich 0 0.00% 0.00% 0
Borussia Dortmund 0 0.00% 0.00% 0
3386 67.72% 33.33% 1666.67
St. Pauli have maintained their position as favourites for relegation. Whatever that may mean. Especially as speculation could go so far as to consider whether they would even be satisfied with this place, according to the current standings. They could be better off, but they could also be worse off. At least they would still have a chance. Otherwise, it’s not an overly exciting view.
This time, the table of the 17th and 18th places is included, so that you can get an idea of that, too.
Table of 17th and 18th places broken down
Team 17th 18th Total in percent
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1094 1991 3085 61.70%
FC St. Pauli 1274 1201 2475 49.50%
1.FC Cologne 1063 1033 2096 41.92%
1.FC Nuremberg 540 260 800 16.00%
VfB Stuttgart 313 188 501 10.02%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 290 167 457 9.14%
FC Schalke 04 147 58 205 4.10%
Eintracht Frankfurt 91 35 126 2.52%
SC Freiburg 76 34 110 2.20%
Werder Bremen 43 11 54 1.08%
VfL Wolfsburg 37 9 46 0.92%
Hannover 96 19 8 27 0.54%
Hamburger SV 8 5 13 0.26%
TSG Hoffenheim 5 0 5 0.10%
FSV Mainz 05 0 0 0.00%
Bayer Leverkusen 0 0 0.00%
FC Bayern Munich 0 0 0.00%
Borussia Dortmund 0 0 0.00%
5000 5000 10000 200.00%
The clear favourite in this ranking is now Borussia Mönchengladbach. But St. Pauli have also “worked” their way forward.
But the next statistic is worth commenting on.
The teams’ chances of relegation from the Bundesliga
(5000 runs)
Team Sum of 17th and 18th places in per cent Added-up chance of relegation
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3085 61.70% 66.45%
FC St. Pauli 2475 49.50% 55.60%
1.FC Köln 2096 41.92% 47.93%
1.FC Nuremberg 800 16.00% 20.77%
VfB Stuttgart 501 10.02% 13.01%
1.FC Kaiserslautern 457 9.14% 12.16%
FC Schalke 04 205 4.10% 5.79%
Eintracht Frankfurt 126 2.52% 3.58%
SC Freiburg 110 2.20% 3.25%
VfL Wolfsburg 46 0.92% 1.65%
Werder Bremen 54 1.08% 1.62%
Hannover 96 27 0.54% 0.90%
Hamburger SV 13 0.26% 0.43%
TSG Hoffenheim 5 0.10% 0.17%
FSV Mainz 05 0 0.00% 0.01%
Bayer Leverkusen 0 0.00% 0.01%
FC Bayern Munich 0 0.00% 0.00%
Borussia Dortmund 0 0.00% 0.00%
10000 200.00% 233.33%
The first three places are almost inevitable. The fact that St. Pauli have now “overtaken” Cologne is logical in so far as they went away empty-handed and Cologne at least managed to pick up a little point. But Cologne is also on an upward trend in other respects, which also has an effect on its playing strength – and thus on its long-term chances. Only Nuremberg is currently giving the three teams behind serious competition.
Even if VfB Stuttgart still has a 13-percent chance of relegation, so it is not completely unrealistic. On the other hand, according to the computer, Hannover 96 can almost celebrate and thus tackle other goals.
It is also interesting to look at the development of the chances compared to the previous week. This first in the numerical representation:
Development of chances from the 13th to the 14th matchday
Team Percentage change
1.FC Kaiserslautern -16.22%
1.FC Cologne -5.06
Hannover 96 -2.55%
Werder Bremen -1.89%
Hamburger SV -0.88%
FSV Mainz 05 -0.16%
VfL Wolfsburg -0.10%
TSG Hoffenheim -0.06%
Bayer Leverkusen -0.01%
Borussia Dortmund 0.00%
FC Bayern Munich 0.00%
Eintracht Frankfurt 0.83%
SC Freiburg 1.46%
VfB Stuttgart 2.85%
Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.34%
FC Schalke 04 3.34%
1.FC Nuremberg 4.84%
FC St. Pauli 10.26%
-0.01%
The sorting is done according to the improvement of the chances to avoid relegation, the sign remains negative, as the chances to get relegated have worsened, so to speak.
Of course, Kaiserslautern not only received a huge boost with the three points against a strong “competitor” for relegation – and Schalke is undoubtedly one of them – and at the same time improved their goal difference enormously, but also gave their own playing strength a mighty boost, according to their own, but proven, logic.
The fact that Cologne gained a single point, even at home (which of course would be too little in the long run), is probably mainly due to the results of the direct competition, as both Gladbach and Pauli lost.
This inevitably makes you look down and see that the leaders mainly “helped themselves” to St. Pauli. That other matchday underdogs are also the losers in this category can in no way be surprising.
5) The point differences
It will be interesting to see whether the results have actually led to a certain correction of the point deviations. At least they should not have increased compared to the previous week, as some games went “according to plan”.
So here is the table of the current deviations:
Point deviations, but sorted by expected points.
Team Name Expected points Points scored Deviation absolute
FC Bayern Munich 27.53 23 -4.53 4.53
Borussia Dortmund 23.63 37 13.37 13.37
Bayer Leverkusen 22.96 26 3.04 3.04
Werder Bremen 22.93 18 -4.93 4.93
FC Schalke 04 21.90 13 -8.90 8.90
Hamburger SV 21.90 21 -0.90 0.90
VfB Stuttgart 21.79 11 -10.79 10.79
VfL Wolfsburg 21.64 16 -5.64 5.64
TSG Hoffenheim 20.52 22 1.48 1.48
FSV Mainz 05 18.87 30 11.13 11.13
Eintracht Frankfurt 17.21 20 2.79 2.79
SC Freiburg 15.87 21 5.13 5.13
1.FC Kaiserslautern 15.72 17 1.28 1.28
1.FC Nuremberg 15.31 18 2.69 2.69
Hannover 96 15.20 25 9.80 9.80
1.FC Cologne 15.16 12 -3.16 3.16
Borussia Mönchengladbach 15.07 10 -5.07 5.07
FC St. Pauli 14.80 14 -0.80 0.80
95.42
This time, for fun, the sorting was done according to the expected points. This way you can get an idea of what the table would normally look like for the computer. There is actually not much that is unrealistic. Bayern should still be in the lead, Dortmund has worked its way up to second place because their good results have made them better and better and expectations have grown, whereas teams that were originally ranked better have naturally dampened expectations with bad results. Only Leverkusen is competing with Dortmund for second place, as they are playing a relatively normal season and were probably about the same as Dortmund beforehand, if not just ahead of them.
Everything is plausible in the back places as well. St. Pauli were probably bottom before — counter question: who else? –, Gladbach and Cologne have worked their way backwards through poor results that lower expectations. Hannover – look at the goal ratio, which also suggests quite a few bad results – have not worked their way up in playing strength to the point where they already had much higher expectations. Above that is a mix of good results and originally assumed playing strength.
This table is nicely divided into the nine teams that one would have expected to finish at the top and those that one would have rather seen fighting against relegation. So far, this looks quite good, except that this season reality has put a fat spanner in the works of any expectations.
However, the assumed correction in the average deviation did not really happen. The average deviation is now the sum divided by the number, i.e. 95.42/18 = 5.30, compared to the previous week’s 5.20, which in principle suggests the effect that the number of matches played must have a general influence, an effect that was also unexpected by the author (but once suggested in an early text). A certain deviation is to be expected, so to speak. If the value grows only slowly, it means that it nevertheless orders itself a little. Theoretically, after this realisation, one would still have to divide out the number of matches and would thus have a deviation per match and no longer per team.
(An immediate analysis of last season showed that although the average deviation after 34 match days, i.e. at the end, was only 4.14 points per team, i.e. clearly below this year’s current value, after the 14th match day the value was also only 3.24 points, also clearly below the current value, but towards the end of the season it increased; in a way a confirmation of the assumption).
Finally, the table of point deviations, sorted as usual:
Point deviations sorted by amount of deviation
Team Name Expected points Points scored Deviation absolute
Borussia Dortmund 23.63 37 13.37 13.37
FSV Mainz 05 18.87 30 11.13 11.13
Hannover 96 15.2 25 9.8 9.8
SC Freiburg 15.87 21 5.13 5.13
Bayer Leverkusen 22.96 26 3.04 3.04
Eintracht Frankfurt 17.21 20 2.79 2.79
1.FC Nürnberg 15.31 18 2.69 2.69
TSG Hoffenheim 20.52 22 1.48 1.48
1.FC Kaiserslautern 15.72 17 1.28 1.28
FC St. Pauli 14.8 14 -0.8 0.8
Hamburger SV 21.9 21 -0.9 0.9
1.FC Köln 15.16 12 -3.16 3.16
FC Bayern Munich 27.53 23 -4.53 4.53
Werder Bremen 22.93 18 -4.93 4.93
Borussia Mönchengladbach 15.07 10 -5.07 5.07
VfL Wolfsburg 21.64 16 -5.64 5.64
FC Schalke 04 21.9 13 -8.9 8.9
VfB Stuttgart 21.79 11 -10.79 10.79
5.99 95.42
ø Deviation 5.30
Interesting insofar as Stuttgart, who at times played spectacular and good football, have clearly dropped to the bottom. As expected, however, all the problem children are there, including Schalke, Wolfsburg, Bayern and Werder, interrupted only by the bottom team.
At the top it remains boring. Mainz, however, is clearly back in 2nd place and Hannover in 3rd, with some distance to go. However, if you think back a little to some of Hannover’s games, you will notice that some of them were quite fortunate, especially late on. Of course, the performance is still worthy of recognition, especially since they were almost relegated last season.
The total deviation (not absolute) remains positive at +5.99, as there are still too few draws, not from the fans’ point of view, of course, but from the computer’s point of view, which, however, had every reason to expect a little more (in total, pretty much six, as each one not scored provides one more point, namely three instead of two).
6) The goal discrepancies
Team Name Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation
Borussia Dortmund 23.75 35 16.78 9 19.03
FSV Mainz 05 19.95 25 20.86 14 11.91
TSG Hoffenheim 21.24 28 19.16 18 7.91
1.FC Kaiserslautern 17.58 25 23.23 25 5.65
Eintracht Frankfurt 18.44 21 21.65 19 5.21
Hannover 96 16.81 20 23.45 22 4.64
SC Freiburg 17.56 19 23.05 23 1.49
Bayer Leverkusen 23.98 26 18.13 19 1.15
1.FC Nürnberg 16.67 18 23.07 24 0.40
Hamburger SV 22.06 23 17.97 22 -3.09
FC St. Pauli 16.28 13 23.11 23 -3.16
VfB Stuttgart 23.15 27 19.19 27 -3.96
VfL Wolfsburg 22.31 22 18.65 23 -4.66
FC Bayern Munich 25.85 23 12.99 15 -4.86
1.FC Cologne 17.21 15 24.10 27 -5.11
Borussia Mönchengladb 18.33 24 25.81 40 -8.52
FC Schalke 04 22.48 19 18.24 24 -9.24
Werder Bremen 24.33 22 18.55 31 -14.78
367.99 405 367.99 405 0.00
Goals ø expected: 2.92 Goals ø scored: 3.21
Again, the expected picture, at least as far as the top is concerned. Dortmund and Mainz are just outstanding. But you can also see how the goal ratio puts things into perspective a bit. Hannover “only” at 6 and Stuttgart up from 18 to 12, compared to the points table. Werder, of course, are further down the table due to the disastrous goal difference (despite the recent 3:0) and need a few more results like that to straighten things out.
The goal total is pleasingly high for the fan, but one would have to raise slight doubts about the qualities of the computer if it continues to lag behind expectations like this. However, in his honour it should be mentioned here that he expected a total average of 2,846 last season and “only” 2,830 came in, which corresponded to a deviation of a total of five goals, but these were still in the other direction, i.e. too few.
In other respects, however, this figure shows the reasonable adjustment on the part of the computer: the 2,8xx would have been the expectation before the season (in the order of magnitude). In the meantime, due to the flood of goals, it has already reacted to the extent that it has steadily expected somewhat more goals for the upcoming match days. Of course, expectations are not corrected into the past, but only into the future. So once expected remains so. For the first matchday, he expected 2.84, for example. This value remains in the statistics forever, then for the 2nd perhaps, because there were too many goals on the 1st, 2.85 and so on. So now he would not be at an expectation of 2.92 but at one of 3.00, but still has the legacy of the possible misjudgement to carry along, so that the sum of the expectations amounts to an average of 2.92.
In absolute terms, the sum of the deviations is at a value (not precalculated here) of 6.38 goals per team, which also means an increase here compared to the previous week. On the one hand, this is due to the circumstance noted for the points expectations, but on the other hand it is due to the fact that the number of goals continues to fall too much.
All in all, however, the impression that continues to impose itself both when looking at the games and results as well as the table, and is confirmed here in terms of numbers, remains: The league is going crazy.
7) The international comparison of goal deviations
Here, just for comparison, are the figures for the English Premier League:
Goal expectations and deviations England, Premier League, after matchday 15 2010/2011.
Goal expectation Goals scored Goals conceded Goals expected Goals conceded Total deviation
Bolton Wanderers 17.59 28 22.62 22 11.03
Stoke City 13.59 19 21.02 19 7.42
Newcastle United 19.10 23 24.47 22 6.38
Sunderland FC 16.30 19 21.41 18 6.11
Blackpool 16.36 23 28.12 29 5.76
West Bromwich Albion 17.34 20 27.10 26 3.76
Birmingham City 14.35 16 19.70 18 3.35
Arsenal London 29.71 32 16.29 17 1.58
Wolverhampton Wanderers 13.61 17 23.84 27 0.23
Fulham 15.07 15 18.19 18 0.12
Manchester City 24.22 20 16.18 12 -0.03
Blackburn Rovers 14.87 18 21.82 25 -0.05
West Ham United 15.92 14 25.97 26 -1.95
Manchester United 32.60 35 11.36 16 -2.24
Tottenham Hotspur 23.10 23 15.91 20 -4.19
Wigan Athletic 15.72 11 25.65 26 -5.07
Everton FC 20.86 17 16.20 19 -6.67
Aston Villa 18.59 17 18.33 24 -7.27
Liverpool FC 21.30 17 14.97 19 -8.32
Chelsea FC London 39.53 29 10.58 10 -9.95
399.74 413 399.74 413 0.00
Goals ø expected 2.66 Goals ø scored 2.75
ø Deviation: 4.57
As you can see, everything turns out a little more moderate. There were also a little too many goals in England, but a) not as many as in Germany and b) a smaller value in general. The average deviation is also much smaller at 4.57, which points to much more “normal” results.
Since the home defeat against Sunderland, Chelsea have not only lost the lead in the table sorted by points (i.e. the normal one), but at the same time have moved to the bottom of this statistic. Liverpool are also having a terrible season so far. At the top, on the other hand, you find Bolton and Stoke, so that this league is also much more alive this season than in previous years. Even if ManU are now top of the table – so one of the heavyweights – and still unbeaten. But they have not even scored according to their expectation (in the table of expectations, as quoted in Germany, Chelsea would still be far ahead of ManU, as they were not only champions, but had simply really dominated the league in pre-season).
8) The current league table
This week we will show you the current league table, which is used by the computer for all calculations:
Match Strength Ranking List 1st Bundesliga after Matchday 14:
Rank Team For Against Quotient of For/Against
1 FC Bayern Munich 1.86 0.98 1.90
2 Borussia Dortmund 1.93 1.03 1.87
3 Bayer Leverkusen 1.73 1.24 1.39
4 TSG Hoffenheim 1.68 1.37 1.23
5 VfL Wolfsburg 1.64 1.36 1.21
6 Hamburger SV 1.64 1.40 1.18
7 Werder Bremen 1.71 1.47 1.17
8 FC Schalke 04 1.56 1.36 1.15
9 VfB Stuttgart 1.65 1.56 1.06
10 FSV Mainz 05 1.40 1.41 1.00
11 Eintracht Frankfurt 1.33 1.53 0.87
12 SC Freiburg 1.34 1.59 0.84
13 Hannover 96 1.32 1.62 0.81
14 1.FC Kaiserslautern 1.37 1.75 0.79
15 1.FC Köln 1.19 1.71 0.69
16 1.FC Nürnberg 1.19 1.76 0.67
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.39 2.10 0.66
18 FC St. Pauli 1.02 1.74 0.59
26.95 26.95
So this is the “computer secret”, so to speak. An explanation of how the parameters come about, how they are calculated and how they are maintained can be found elsewhere or here on occasion. However, this is the basis for all (current) calculations. Even the author finds it relatively difficult to find anything seriously wrong with it at present.
The fact that Bayern holds the top position ahead of Dortmund, even if only just, seems halfway understandable. Of course, one has to take into account that it is impossible for the computer – and would not be possible for reasons of objectivity – to record the course of the game. It only has the results as a basis for its classification (comparable to the so often criticised reporters). Dortmund has had great, outstanding results, Bayern has had rather mediocre ones so far – even if “only”, as can be seen from the goal difference table, 2.8 goals too few and 2 too many conceded – so that Dortmund is really closing in on the former kingpin. Any more results would tip the scales in Dortmund’s favour in a flash, but so far the Bavarian lead from before the season has held up – a view that can certainly be regarded as reasonable in general.
St. Pauli are at the bottom, which is not surprising in view of the recent poor results and the basic assessment – and certainly does not give rise to any serious objections despite some good performances. Only the constellation Cologne before Nuremberg may be very surprising, but it is also razor-thin and Cologne had two quite good results recently, Nuremberg two clear defeats, so that one would have to look at this almost on a daily basis.
Mainz still behind Stuttgart, well, should it be the other way round? Stuttgart still have a balanced goal difference, which in any case has a positive effect on their match strength. And the former heavyweights are still ranked ahead of the high-flyers like Freiburg, Hannover, Frankfurt, which would be very difficult to do otherwise. Werder, as an example, is recognised as having the potential. However, here, too, further bad results – and good ones on the other side – could change the circumstances.
Even if, emotionally, Wolfsburg don’t belong in 5th place: who of those behind them should be put ahead of them? Sure, Mainz have the fantastic results. But would Mainz really be favourites in a duel on a neutral pitch, for example in a cup final? No, you can’t feel that way. And the other teams behind Wolfsburg all have their problems, too.
All in all, of course, with very fluctuating and surprising results, it is a difficult task, and not only for the computer, to have this ranking “correct”. However, the one offered is a very respectable and reasonable basis.
9) Preview of the 15th Matchday
For the first time, a preview of the 15th matchday will be given here, just as the computer does its preview.
The forecasting does not consist of determining who will win, but how likely the three possible outcomes of the games are. This is based on the strengths of the players, which are offset against each other in a skilful function – together with the likewise parameterised home advantage – and thus result in the ominous and much quoted goal expectations for the individual match. The goal expectations for a specific match are in turn offset against each other in such a way that the probability of a home win, a draw and an away win can be determined. Since the entire complex is not quite so easy to derive mathematically, the quite vivid results should rather indicate here that these are not only realistic assumptions, but that there is solid, but ultimately conclusive mathematics behind them.
Here, then, are the calculated goal-scoring expectations – which ultimately form the basis for the statistics given above – for the matchday 15 pairings:
Goal expectations for the 9 matches of matchday 15 of the 2010/2011 season
Goal expectation
Home Away
FC St. Pauli 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.38 1.39
Borussia Mönchengladbach Hannover 96 1.57 1.55
VfB Stuttgart TSG Hoffenheim 1.66 1.55
VfL Wolfsburg Werder Bremen 1.81 1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt FSV Mainz 05 1.38 1.29
SC Freiburg Hamburger SV 1.48 1.49
FC Schalke 04 FC Bayern Munich 1.19 1.45
Bayer Leverkusen 1st FC Cologne 2.04 0.96
- FC Nuremberg Borussia Dortmund 0.99 2.00
13.51 13.15Expected goal total Expected goal average: 26.66 2.96
Well, as you can see, there are some very even pairings. As things stand, Pauli – Lautern is one of them, as is Gladbach against Hannover and Freiburg – HSV. It would also be unfair to speak of a clear favourite in Frankfurt against Mainz and Stuttgart against Hoffenheim, which is only evident in the pairings Leverkusen against Cologne and Nuremberg against Dortmund.
It is also striking that the computer once again expects the most goals from Werder (at Wolfsburg) with 1.81 to 1.47 for a total of 3.28. For Schalke against Bayern, on the other hand, it sees only 2.64 goals with 1.19 to 1.45.
Overall, you can hardly expect more home wins than away wins on this matchday, as the top favourites Bayern and Dortmund play away and are also favourites in their pairings. But also the better teams tend to be away from home, so that, as you can see from the totals, there is almost nothing left of the home advantage.
Now, however, the goal expectations converted into probabilities, which, even if not pre-calculated, should at least be able to present some insightful logic:
The probabilities for the match outcomes of matchday 15
Pairing 1 X 2
FC St. Pauli 1. FC Kaiserslautern 36.95% 25.81% 37.25%
Borussia Mönchengladbach Hannover 96 38.26% 24.10% 37.64%
VfB Stuttgart TSG Hoffenheim 40.57% 23.66% 35.77%
VfL Wolfsburg Werder Bremen 45.63% 23.02% 31.35%
Eintracht Frankfurt FSV Mainz 05 39.00% 26.26% 34.73%
SC Freiburg Hamburger SV 37.52% 24.82% 37.66%
FC Schalke 04 FC Bayern Munich 30.83% 26.20% 42.97%
Bayer Leverkusen 1. FC Köln 62.26% 20.81% 16.93%
- FC Nuremberg Borussia Dortmund 17.99% 21.32% 60.69%
3.49 2.16 3.35
(Note: The sums of all probabilities per line always add up to 100%. So to speak, containing the statement: “The game will end”. How, we will see. This is what the chances and later the result stand for, which pushes one chance to 100%, the others to 0%).
All, even the slightest, favourites in the goal expectations also translate into the games. Kaiserslautern expects a tenth of a goal more, so they also have the very slightly higher percentage expectation of winning. You can also see that Leverkusen’s slightly more favourable goal expectations than Dortmund’s also translate into a slightly higher chance of winning.
You can also see that, in total, only a good two draws are expected and that the home teams are only minimally favoured. This should already look quite different on the next matchday.
Controversial assessments can hardly be discerned. That Bayern are favourites (and how much or how little) can hardly be doubted. Leverkusen’s clear superiority could only be somewhat exaggerated due to the Rhineland duel, which is likely to slightly blur the differences. Frankfurt against Mainz also has a slight derby character, but that only makes the assessment more realistic.
Well, we will see, also on the basis of these figures, what the changes are for next week.
In any case, excitement is guaranteed everywhere!