The European Championship is over, the big favourite has won. This is what both the betting market and the computer said, but the computer even advised playing Spain at the beginning. The market had paid a 3.8, the computer calculated fair odds of 3.2. And even in the assessment of Team Spain, after evaluating the individual players according to their club teams, there was even some room for improvement, as most play for Barca and Real, a few more for Champions League winners Chelsea, and thus, according to this type of assessment, they would even be a little further ahead. It’s the ultimate in what’s on the pitch in Europe at the moment.
So winning the title can’t really come as a surprise, since they were the big favourites, with the odds being in the order of “only” 30%. In this respect, it would be a surprise in the sense of: “Oh, the favourite actually won?” Since the 70% against Spain was more likely than the 30% on them. On the other hand, one could ask the next question: “Who else?” And seriously so. Because: everyone else had smaller chances than those 30% (which the market even saw slightly lower: 1/3.8 = 26.32%).
All in all, the computer did quite well with most of the assessments. Spain named first, whereas exactly that Spain needed the luck of winning the penalty shoot-out in the semi-final, which, if they had really been better (like Italy against England), would not have given anyone a bellyache. But it wasn’t like that: it was rather Portugal who was the better team, as nothing went right for Spain on this evening, certainly also partly due to the excellent set-up of the Portuguese team. But once again we see that nothing works without luck. Because: even the 2:0 against the French in the quarter-finals, which sounded so sovereign, only SOUNDS sovereign. France also came close to (decisively) upsetting the Spaniards.
Italy was really difficult to assess, as everyone agreed. There, not only the squad (always much discussed in Italy, by the way) was difficult to judge, but in this case actually even more the effect of the recent betting scandal. This has caused some scepticism both in the computer (and its feeder) and in the betting market. However, that Italy can and always have been able to play football and that they could show it, perhaps even out of spite, in this tournament was already evident in the opening game against Spain. That was great class and may have spurred them on to even greater deeds. The basic assessment on this side of the keyboard: Italy belongs at the top of Europe, always, also in club football. A country with a great tradition and an unbelievable amount of football expertise, as you can always see in conversations with euphoric fans who nevertheless always remain objective and realistic. This, by the way, is in stark contrast to Germany, where the many victories at major tournaments always ensure total delusion, which first passes on to the reporters and from there spreads to the whole country. In this country, you really only hear nonsense about the odds, which usually translates into this: Germany wins, now, today, tomorrow, over and over again. But woe betide them if they don’t for once. Then it’s no longer “we” who are losing or have lost, no, then it’s the irresponsible national coach who not only sets up incorrectly at first but later doesn’t ensure the fervent recitation of the national anthem (and what nonsense).
So the computer was also quite good in other respects. With the French, it was somewhat ambivalent, but so was the betting market. With regard to the Germans, it was rather good, as it advised betting against them in the tournament (Lay Deutschland Europameister), but even supported them in the game against Holland.
The smaller nations were not entirely misjudged either. He was rather sceptical about Poland, Ukraine perhaps a little too good, but in any case they also had some bad luck, especially against England. The Greeks were supported in principle, which had a positive effect (hard to say whether they were too lucky), so that one can actually be satisfied all around. Even Portugal came very close to equalising in the first game against the Germans (a very important game basically, also for the long term bets), but was almost the better team for the whole game, even if half 1 went to Germany.
In terms of bets, there was also a decent plus, so of course one can be satisfied. Nevertheless, it remains the case that the computer is best suited to everyday league life. There, all games are under the same sign and there are enough of them, since out of 18 (up to 20) teams, each plays twice against each other. Nevertheless, there is of course no reason whatsoever to be pessimistic about the 2014 World Cup (with the Qualifiers beforehand). Let’s see…
